Actual Hospitalizations for Coronavirus Significantly Lower than Projections in Model

Breitbart:

The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by White House Coronavirus Task Force officials appears to dramatically overstate the hospitalization of patients with coronavirus in the United States when the model’s projections are compared to actual data, a Breitbart News analysis finds.

Breitbart News compared projections of the number of regular hospital beds needed to treat coronavirus patients made in the Friday, April 3 iteration of the IHME model for nine states to the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations (a number that includes current regular bed hospitalizations, current ICU hospitalizations, previously hospitalized and released patients, and previously hospitalized and deceased patients) reported by the respective health departments in those states as of Thursday, April 2.

The results showed that the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations as a percentage of regular hospital beds needed projected by the IHME model ranged from nine percent in Tennessee to 47 percent in Florida.

Even in New York State, the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations as a percentage of regular hospital beds needed projected by the IHME model was only 37 percent.

These numbers, however, actually understate the degree to which the IHME model overestimates the number of hospital beds currently needed for coronavirus patients because the numerator–cumulative hospitalizations–includes data well in addition to the actual number of current regular hospital beds in use for coronavirus patients, since it also includes current ICU hospital beds in use for coronavirus patients as well as previously hospitalized coronavirus patients either released or deceased.

Data on cumulative hospitalizations in currently reported by most states, while some provide more detailed information.

The Department of Public Health in Minnesota, for instance, reported as of April 2 that 46 out of the 156 reported cumulative hospitalizations in the state for coronavirus are patients currently in regular hospital beds, while 40 are patients in ICU hospital beds and 70 are formerly hospitalized patients who have been released or are deceased.

Here is a breakdown of the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations reported by these nine states as of April 2, as compared to the number of regular hospital beds projected for coronavirus patients in those states on April 2 by the IHME model: more here

13 Comments on Actual Hospitalizations for Coronavirus Significantly Lower than Projections in Model

  1. There’s so much contradictory information out there it’s becoming a bad joke. Fauci mentioned in a press conference yesterday that all their models have been useless. Which I take to mean the data was junk, or this virus is mutating

    17
  2. You mean that unconfirmed data has placed us into an unconfirmed medical emergency necessitating the involuntary and unlegitimized forfeiture of my rights?????

    Rucy, tell me it not so.

    Where’s that cattle car station? I wanna warn sheep before they head off to the trains taking them to the virus safe spaces.

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  3. Not much sense in going to Hospital, since there’s NO EFFECTIVE TREATMENT and NO CURE FOR VIRUSES! Duh! or Mega-DUH!

    The models don’t work because they’re not modeling reality, but someone’s political necessities. Same with Globaloney Warming/Climate Change models – the intent and purpose is to terrify, not to verify.

    The Wuhan Flu hoax has done in 4 months what Obola, Schumer, and Pelosi were unable to do in 8 years – bring the economy to a grinding halt. America’s being played – again.

    izlamo delenda est …

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  4. Amen. The model is garbage. Fauxi and brix ought to be fired if not fined. They will get medals and be declared heroes for helping the media with this anti-trump hoax.

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  5. I see Texas has just issued a mandatory stay at home order. What fucking bullshit. I have a loaded trailer that I was just about to drive to my new home.

    And over what? Texas has 105 deaths attributed to this Chinese flu. In the 2017-2018 flu season nearly 10,000!!! Texans died of the flu and no one said shit.

    This is such bullshit. I’m tempted just to go ahead and go. Really WTF is going on?

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  6. I wonder if the initial claims that WuHan Coronavirus was deadly only to the over 60 crowd……is the reason why we immediately went into full pandemic lock down…..?

    I can imagine TPTB’s having a full blown shit fit over “boomer remover”……seeing how they are mostly all over 60…..

    Just a thought.

    1
  7. Only idiots use model predictions for illness…
    Model projections are like using inflatable dolls for sex partners,
    You are only deluding yourself.

    3
  8. So if we admit at this point people are going to get it and the goal of flattening the curve was just to have it happen over a longer period so we could ensure the health system didn’t collapse and all evidence shows that isn’t even close to happening then lets reopen the economy and at risk people – elderly, sick, fat diabetic people can make their own choices.

    Texas did a stay at home primarily because the big lib cities were making it impossible for construction and other types of essential business so Abbott put in the order so he could supersede them with an executive order that construction was essential. Playing the game.

    2
  9. Bullshit.

    How come a framer or glazier is essential but someone with a small business isn’t? How come we can go out to grocery shop, go into supermarkets or Home Depots, get our cars fixed but I have to sit in my fucking house and watch the clouds go by?

    Bullshit

    2
  10. My FIL Passed this past Wendesday (Not from virus) We had the Funeral Yesterday. They “allowed” us 10 people including the Director & Priest. Just wanted to mention that @ the Emergency
    Hospital, It was Empty. Just last Fall it was packed with patients waiting everywhere.He had to wait for a bed.
    at the Burial we were instructed to not touch the casket.
    There was some crying and He relented an said the workers would wipe it down. We did, to say a proper goodby.
    RIP Sweet man. We did manage a Floral arrangement. They are all closed.They never did wipe it down.

    2
  11. It’s been all bullshit since day one. Nothing but lies from the dog catcher to the CDC. All lies and deception.

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