Curve Ball: The Worst-Case COVID-19 Scenario Was Just Dramatically Cut by Modelers

PJM: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle has just revised down its COVID-19 worst-case scenarios for the country.

One of the projected next hotspots, California, is projected to need only half the ICU beds, ventilators and critical hospital equipment than originally predicted because there will be many fewer COVID-19 cases, according to IMHE. All of the state’s supplies are on hand, according to the survey. more

26 Comments on Curve Ball: The Worst-Case COVID-19 Scenario Was Just Dramatically Cut by Modelers

  1. so, they shut down the world over something that’s about as virulent as the average yearly flu

    … & we went along like sheep

    “Those that trade their Liberty for Security deserve neither” ~ B. Franklin

  2. I saw a chart today that represented the breakdown of COVID-19 deaths, and the most striking columns showed numbers of deaths of those with pre-existing conditions (huge) and numbers of deaths of those without pre-existing conditions (minimal).

    This is foolishness.

    P.S. @ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ, yes…like sheep.

  3. Some of us have gone along grudgingly. There is nothing I can do about all of the businesses that I normally utilize being shuttered……… and I ain’t wearing no stupidassed mask!

  4. How is it that CA is going to be a hotspot??? I think the hotspots are done in USA, likely a couple of ‘warm’ spots but nothing that existing supply can’t pivot to cover.
    15,000 deaths now in USA attributed to COVID-19, I say fewer than 30,000 by the end. Meanwhile it is time for quarantine to progress to only those who are frail or are infected.

  5. Crackerbaby- me either.

    A cashier at the grocery store said she didn’t see the point because as careful as she already is, gloves and a mask isn’t going to stop kungflu from getting her if she was meant to get it.

    Remember- your eyes are exposed all the time, for one thing.
    And your gloves- did you touch any items at the grocery store?
    Did you then touch your wallet?
    Touch your credit /debit card?
    And did you touch all them buttons on the machine?
    You put everything back in your wallet and then back into your purse / pocket, right?
    Is your infected wallet mingling with your other shit?
    The phone?
    A pen?
    Some loose candies?
    That bottle of antiseptic?
    Still got them gloves on? You touched the door handles on your car, huh?
    What about the steering wheel?
    Did you touch your face/ears when you took your mask off?

    So many questions.



  7. @BFH – here in our back yard baseball confinement we call it a wiffle SCREW ball.

  8. Could it be that if you DO NOT live next to pools of bat shit water and DO NOT eat dogs, cats, baby birds that your likely hood of recovery and your immune system is not as badly effected?

    What do I Know, I’m not a W.H.O. Ethiopian hire sponsored by OAC & Turdeau’s Idols.

  9. Yes, but the thing to keep in mind is a second or third wave that would be reaching us sometime at the start of this years’ regular flu season in the late summer/early fall. It was the second wave that decimated world populations in 1918. One of the reasons it was so deadly is that many were of the opinion that it wasn’t that serious a threat. The virus had sufficiently mutated to present a more virulent and deadly disease, the one that turned into The Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918. This is what the NIH/CDC and university-based research should be working on at this moment. At the very least work should begin on self-sufficiency of all that is required and combat dependency on China or other unfriendly countries in the future. We may not get such an opportunity for this sort of united public sentiment again in a long time.

  10. The BIG problem here is the strategy by the ChiComs of manufacturing bio-viruses to be used against what they perceive to be their enemies. They are the current “evil empire”. Ignoring this reality will be a major issue for our future.

  11. The gateway pundit has had many articles on the lefts massaging the numbers by like 500 %

    I say when this is over we quarantine fauci and brext with the Tiger King dude.

  12. @AA – Good point. Will the average persons’ immune system be able to ward off the yearly flu virus AND the second or third wave of the ChiComm-virus?
    Not to mention anything else that the ChiComms release.

  13. Hey Joe6 — Did Mrs. Right tell you about our convo?

    Here’s something to consider in the theory that Covid19 was developed as a biological weapon: There are at least a dozen viruses which have fatality rates surpassing that of Covid19 by many orders of magnitude. If the Chinese did this on purpose, why wouldn’t they use them instead of something that appears to be no stronger than more common flu types in its current form? The only way I can imagine it being developed as a bio-weapon is if Chinese developers know how it will mutate after it goes through competitive exclusion, where the virus will make all previous iterations basically disappear because of the process of herd immunity.

  14. F4UCorsair — In my spare time (which is in abundance) I’ve been watching some really fine lectures and reading some very good scientific articles focusing in influenza epidemics and influenza types (origins, molecular structures, etc.). One of these is on the Spanish Flu pandemic (it’s in 3 parts on YT under “The Great Courses”). As nearly as I understand it, there is usually only one dominant strain of flu each flu season. Apparently, a new, mutated strain cancels out all previous active strains through the process called “competitive exclusion”. IOW, the new, mutated virus is the former virus’s nemesis in addition to the old virus having been locked out of the human defenses by herd immunity. It’s a fascinating process. What it means, essentially, is that we never are completely rid of the basic building blocks of influenza. Scientists can unearth old viruses (as they have with the Spanish Flu virus) for research by taking tissue samples from people who have been very long dead. In the Spanish flu, for example, one scientist unearthed a deceased woman in the northernmost reaches of Alaska. I think it was sometime in the 1980’s or ’90’s in order to obtain working cells of the virus. They were found in her lungs which had been protected all those years by layers of body fat.

    Makes you wish you had a few more lifetimes to pursue these things. I appreciate why scientists become rather monkish about their life’s work.

  15. AA, Mrs. Always Right was proud to hear from you! With the many viruses that have higher mortality rates out there one has many things to consider. Did this get released prematurely? Is it designed to mutate? Is it only intended to bring down Trump, leaving our internal traitors to move into positions of power? I believe this to be greater than a complex flu bug. The ChiComs are our enemy, and there are powerful allies of the ChiComs in our country as a result of the money the ChiComs have corrupted our country with. I believe us Patriots are outnumbered, but we can still beat the TRAITOROUS BASTARDS!!! We have to!!

  16. @AbigailAdams, @joe6pak — If the China Blight is the deliberate release of an engineered virus, we have to look closely at what the purpose is. It doesn’t necessarily follow that a weaponized virus be as lethal as possible if the goal is economic subjugation. If all they end up with is corpses, there’s no one to subjugate, and certainly no economic benefit.

  17. Al, I agree. If the goal is economic upheaval with an expectation of turnover of the existing administration then they are making a helluva an effort. I’m thinking they have miscalculated on the level of support that PRESIDENT TRUMP has. We will rally around our PRESIDENT!!

  18. Uncle Al, Joe —

    But this is what I have “larned”: We have had much greater pandemics in the modern era (1957/58, 1968, etc.) that originated in Asia/China. Nearly all of our flu viruses come from parts of Asia, predominantly China. It is theorized this is because these cultures live cheek by jowl with the animal stocks that carry these viruses; predominantly pigs, chickens and ducks. Remember the Hong Kong flu of ’68? China slaughtered every last Chicken in Hong Kong. Every one of them.

    I’m telling you, I’ve learned more about the shape-shifting characteristics of influenza than I ever thought necessary. It’s fascinating stuff. Did you know that one of research’s hardest nut to crack is the process of antigenic shift in which viruses recirculate by getting rid of and replacing its components in countless combinations? When you start understanding ‘flu “varieties”, “types” and “sub-types” it becomes increasingly clear (and rather bewildering) why it’s really a miracle that we have any vaccines that work at all! It’s really like one of those Apollo 13/MIT engineering quandries where Public Health comes in with a box of unrelated parts, dumps it on the table with the mandate that infectious disease workers and pharma “bring that crew home! Failure is not an option!”

    So I think I can be forgiven for not taking the “China built a virus bomb” theory too seriously. That it may have all the earmarks of bio-warfare, I think, is entirely coincidental to long-standing facts about influenza epidemics. But, too, that if this means we come out of this particular episode wiser as a nation, then it doesn’t really matter one way or other. For once we can laud ends over means — in a positive way.

    One of the reasons so many are eager to find a ’cause’ for this pandemic is they do not know the history of even worse pandemics, so this does seem to have completely out of nowhere. It would be like living most of your life having never heard or even experienced an earthquake and then living through a medium-sized one. I have never experienced living through a terrible hurricane or tornado, but they happen frequently enough that I don’t question their existence or have the temptation of mind to think they were the result of geo-political tensions.

    …anyway. Ask me anything about influenza! I got nothing better to do right now!!

  19. The socialistic deceptive pathological strategy is to make COVID-19 aka Commievirus deadlier than the flu, respiratory failures, pneumonia, bronchitis, fatal allergic reactions even lung cancer and heart disease, etc.
    According to the bureaucrat progressive scientific “experts” it doesn’t matter if an underline illness is actually the reason for someone’s death if they test positive for the Commievirus it becomes the cause written on death certificates. The numbers of death due to this hyped pandemic just can’t be accurate.
    The socialist goal is to keep those newly minted Fiat federal dollars flowing until the reserve is permanently bankrupt with no recovery – socialism in action.
    President Trump needs to put an end to this nonsense by May or Americans are going to wish all they had to deal with was a weak cold/flu strain.

  20. The fudge does china need with an actual virus? Just get the media to tell everyone there’s a virus and pretty soon you’ll have credible people on TV telling us this week is OUR 9/11. OUR PEARL HARBOR MOMENT. And the desired outcome will be the same.

  21. hard to say how many actually died from the the kung flu virus vs died with the virus present, since the monetary remuneration from the feds to the state is tied to death from the kung flu virus


Comments are closed.