Disease Forecaster Becoming More Optimistic On COVID-19 Numbers

KFI:

President Donald Trump was speaking to millions of Americans this week when he mentioned the possibility of life and the economy going ‘back to normal’ by Easter. However, the staggering numbers of unemployment claims are now suggesting otherwise… But were the figures predicted in the beginning of the pandemic even accurate?

Neil Ferguson is a scientist at the Imperial College of London, and it was his forecast figures that predicted the high number of cases and deaths to be expected in the U.K. and U.S. Even just last week, he co-authored a report that described the coronavirus as “a virus with comparable lethality to H1N1 influenza in 1918.” But now, Ferguson may be thinking otherwise. read more

18 Comments on Disease Forecaster Becoming More Optimistic On COVID-19 Numbers

  1. OMgosh, @MJA reading an article RIGHT now about it.

    BUT their argument? HE saved us doncha know?

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/imperial-college-prof-neil-ferguson-who-inspired-us-and-uk-coronavirus-lockdowns-is-in-self-isolation

    Even Reason is defending him:

    https://reason.com/2020/03/27/no-british-epidemiologist-neil-ferguson-has-not-drastically-downgraded-his-worst-case-projection-of-covid-19-deaths/

    “Gee, I did not know ONE single match could burn down the entire healthy forest/ecosystem, in the right circumstances, sorry bout that one mate.”

    This reminds me of the ‘panic’ with the cooked East Anglia reports/data about global warming rates and bad ‘models’.

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  2. Best scenario is that this first pandemic and dempanic proves to be milder than predicted, and America gets off its cumbaya ass and actually plans for such things, well supplied beforehand.
    If the rest of the world wants to take care of their own, it’s up to them, not us.
    Immigration reform, manufacturing revival, America first.

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  3. When Sweden isn’t grabbing the anxiety ankles like the E.U., panic pushers just don’t know what to do. Look, someone went outside!

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  4. I respect Mr. Ferguson for his willingness to publicly reassess his predictions, but he should be warned that Chappaquatch will probably denounce him as a Russian bot. Hopefully, that will be the worst of it, but you never know how far she’ll go for her China grifts.

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  5. Why is anyone comparing Covid19 to the N1H1 or Spanish “flu”? I thought it had now morphed into Covid19 “disease”.

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  6. I’m still not worried about the economy. In any event, I think a lot of America First things will shake out of this crisis. Starting with a lot more people a lot more aware of the things they buy that are “Made in China.”

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  7. So basically you might as well take the opinion of the weatherman who is about as accurate as throwing dice.

    AbigailAdams
    flu is a different type of virus
    corona is closer to the common cold

    3
  8. Morons are enamored with her statistical models don’t mean a damn thing.

    If worse comes to worse use real world numbersIf . arso!

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  9. I’M A POOR READER..SO, THE ESTIMATES WERE 500K, THEN 2OK, NOW “SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER” THAN THE 20K??

    THE FAKE NEWS JUST GETS FAKER AND FAKER…

    &^%!!@#@!DRAMA QUEEN$#$^&^$!!

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  10. And to think, we tanked our economy over the same politically driven scare tactics from the same people who want us to believe that man is causing climate change.

    When are we going to drive these assholes out of power and influence, and reinstate sanity in our lives?

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  11. All bullshit aside… we are under a tomato watch. On the old system we called it a Whole Gale. Like, windy and shit. A storm.

    Batten down the fucking hatches.

    “Biddy te boor beebles ashore tis night, poys!” old Blauklot sang out, as he went off to his quarters with the sail-maker. I often think of that, now that I’m ashore for good and all.”

    F. Marion Crawford.

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  12. Cases have been growing at only 1000-1500 per day the past few days in USA, and it was predicted 5 days ago we would be over 20,000 per day and that hasn’t happened yet.

    Shanghai Shivers are slowing.

    To me it would have made more sense to lockdown only those that have preexisting conditions and let the virus run thru the healthy population. We would already be done with this and saved $6 trillion. Locking down the entire country only slows the end result. MAYBE pass a $100 billion (or less) stimulus for the small percentage that required lockdown and the even smaller percentage of healthy people that it may have killed. But no, now we have to deal with this virus for many more weeks/months/years while it just works its way thru the population at a slower pace. Leaving significant time for the infected to become reinfected.

    Think of how beautiful the wall could have been with $6 trillion. You could have paid everyone each a few thousand bucks to hand lay a single brick.

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  13. When China sold us dog food that killed our pets, no one boycotted the brands who bought from them, no one demanded we stop importing it.
    When China sends us ‘generics’ that don’t work, we don’t boycott the stores that buy from them, and we don’t ban generics from China.
    But when some mentally ill male stuffs his 200 lb ass into a 100lb limit pencil skirt, and wants to take a shit in the ladies’ room, we have to change laws and accept him, so he can do so.

    You shouldn’t call Communists your enemies and then import 75% of your shit from them.
    it’s stupid.

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  14. Oh yeah, if wer’re going to ban trade with Iran for atrocities against us and their own people, we should also ban trade with China for their atrocities, too. I’m not a fan of islam either but for damn sure I’m not going to trade with some assholes in China who do shitty things to muslims (torture, organ harvesting) AND some regular Chinese just out trying to do some religious form of Tai Chi (torture, organ harvesting).

    Nixon shoulda kept his ass home.

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  15. Some people are making humongous fortunes off this Wuhan Flu.

    Buying up stocks at fire-sale prices.
    Selling ammo at paranoia prices.
    Skimming off the $2 Trillion “stimulus” – same as they did off earlier “stimuli.”
    Short selling.
    Anybody following the money?
    Market comes to a screeching halt – Congress comes to a screeching halt (except to capitalize on misfortune) – 60,000,000 under house arrest – 24 hr a day braying asses on TV – misdirection the order of the day – political legerdemain – posturing scowling morons – toilet paper crisis – and a mortality rate dwarfed by just about every other cause of death in the Universe!

    What’s that smell?

    izlamo delenda est …

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  16. MJA @

    The Italians flew in cheap labor from “Chyna” to maintain the Made In Italy labels for the fashion houses as they trained their future competition.

    Now they are paying with their lives!

    The only way to really turn the tide is not taxation and tariffs, it is to have Everyone refuse to buy anything with those words “Made in China” or the “PRC” that they commonly use to trick the illiterate.

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