How Does An 87-99% Chance Of A Trump Victory Sound? – IOTW Report

How Does An 87-99% Chance Of A Trump Victory Sound?


A SUNY Stony Brook professor, Helmut Norpoth, whose election model has only been wrong once since 1912, (it missed on the Kennedy election in 1960) states with near complete certainty that we will have a President Trump in a matter of days.  His model is actually based on how citizens have actually turned out and vote, not on opinions given at the moment to pollsters.


Of course I’m still going to vote come November 8th, just to be part of the peaceful transfer of power.

25 Comments on How Does An 87-99% Chance Of A Trump Victory Sound?

  1. We all know why the 1960 was missed. Voter fraud!

  2. I’ll cast my vote. Gives me legal standing for redress. On my terms this time.

  3. I’ve got the champagne a’chillin’.

    This is worse than being a kid waiting for Christmas and dreaming of a new bicycle.

  4. Vegas still has Trump at +350. Easy money.

  5. I certainly hope the good professor factored in the dead vote, the illegal vote, the bussed-in vote, the convicted felon vote, the nursing home proxy votes, etc., etc., etc. ….

  6. He nailed her at the Ca holiday dinner tonight.

  7. Voter fraud in 1960 caused JFK’s head to explode.

  8. Big Papi
    “We all know why the 1960 was missed. Voter fraud!”

    So, the only way he will miss this one is….

  9. Bookmaker Paddy Powers has Trump 4/1 and Killary 2/11.

  10. The model was only wrong once since 1912, when the Democrat machine stole the election from Nixon, with many dead people voting. Al Franken stole his election in Minnesota, and that Al Gore attempted a daring daylight robbery of the election in Florida. Many voter ID laws have been passed, and liberal judges have thrown many of them out.

    If you haven’t already, volunteer to be a poll watcher. If you’re not working, videotape your local polling place for any unseemly activity, from a safe, discreet position without any electioneering.

    Be a grass-roots Project Veritas

  11. Moe Tom, I think I might like what you said, but I don’t understand bookmaking odds. What do those odds actually mean. (I didn’t hang around the pool rooms nor ponies much as a young woman.) 🙂

  12. @Deplorable I believe you read as for every $1 you put up on Trump they’ll give you $4 if he wins. You have to put $11 on Hillary to get $2 from them if she wins.

  13. Is there a candidate running against Trump?
    That’s news to me

  14. Back in 2012 some guy who was never wrong said Romney was in for the win. He did not factor on the Low Information voter waive and 106% voter turn out in some inner cities.

    All I keep saying to my never@trump friends is “if she wins the Republic dies”.

  15. Pelopidas, well I wasn’t going to coment on this topic. But you and I agree. You can’t cherry pick shit and make it fact. I’m extremely pessimistic about this race. I truly beleive Trump would win a “Fair” vote. This election will be anything but fair. Ghosts from the Romney election which all of us thought for sure he’d win. We all know how that turned out. If Trump wins against all stacked odds and is done away with, who becomes VP? Pence in all reality is one of theirs. A Pence/Ryan admin supports the status quo globalist agenda.

  16. Make it happen. You don’t wanna hear me scream, “YOU HAD ONE JOB!!”

  17. I made sure to vote last week in case my surgeon screwed up this week. I’m still here and Trump has my vote.

    We all thought we had 2012 in the bag. Didn’t account for all the corruption on the left. It will be even worse this election.

    Hit those third-party voters, feed them some reality of a Hillary presidency. We need more than a landslide.

  18. @AbigailAdams October 20, 2016 at 9:13 pm

    I’m dreaming of a Red Ryder BB gun.

  19. enjoy your win [ we BREXIT deplorables ” in the UK are right behind you

  20. “How Does An 87-99% Chance Of A Trump Victory Sound?”

    like the actual results if you look at rally attendance and supporter enthusiasm.

    but we all know that the most votes for democrats come from the dead and non voters.

    and the dead don’t attend rallies.

    it’s hard to telephone poll the dead unless your the msm.

  21. Still getting mentally prepared for the liberal caliphate to continue the Obama caliphate.

    The last election even loser Karl Rove couldn’t believe Obama won. And listless Romney was like pushing a chain across the finish line. Disappointment sucks.

  22. 3 – 4 million Republican’s votes were thrown out before counting, err, they stayed home and didn’t vote because Romney was a Mormon. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.