I got a lot of great feedback from my House predictions, so I’m back for my Senate predictions and a liveblog later tonight! One comment I got on my House articles was a question as to why I didn’t make a call on every single election with one prediction each. Mainly, that was because I’m not sure if there will be a Red Wall or a Blue Wave, and didn’t want to act like I did.
However, since a lot of you asked, I believe the Democrats will more than likely take the House tonight and that the Blue Wave predictions are more likely to be accurate than my Red Wave ones. I’m not happy to write that, but I wanted to make a concrete prognostication because so many of you asked. And if I turn out to be wrong, I’ll be more than happy to say so tonight! Now, on to my Senate predictions, which I’ll make one prediction for each. And once again, I’d like to warn that these are not what I hope happens, but what I think will happen.
Baseline prediction: Republicans keep control of the Senate, 50-50 with Vice President Pence with a tie-breaking vote.
Arizona: Martha McSalley (R) vs. Kyrsten Sinema (D):
Sinema’s offensive statements about our armed forces during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have taken a toll on her polls and her favorability. McSalley has been campaigning hard in the final stretch and has a good shot of winning. I think the thing that will end up deciding the election is the Green Party candidate, coincidentally named Angela Green, dropping out and endorsing Sinema.
Prediction: Sinema (D) wins, 51-47
North Dakota: Kevin Cramer (R) vs. Heidi Heitkamp (D), incumbent:
In the last few weeks, Heidi Heitkamp has made blunder after blunder, struggling to stem the tide of Kevin Cramer’s momentum, while simultaneously trying to convince voters to reelect her. I believe she has probably failed. Gaffes with ads, including one where she used the name of women who were sexually assaulted without having permission to print their names, were just the final nails in the coffin.
Prediction: Cramer (R) wins, 54-46
Tennessee: Marsha Blackburn (R) vs. Phil Bredesen (D):
Bob Corker’s retirement had Democrats thinking that they could potentially swipe a seat in Tennessee. Despite polling lower than one might expect in a ruby red state, Blackburn has too much going in her favor to make her an underdog. In fact, she has a solid lead, though I think this one will not quite be a blowout.
Prediction: Blackburn (R) wins, 53-47
Nevada: Dean Heller (R), incumbent, vs. Jacky Rosen (D):
This race is, needless to say, a nail-biter. The polls have not swung heavily toward one side or the other in a month, and Heller has the major advantage of being an incumbent. If the Blue Wave is real, Rosen will take the state, but if the Red Wall is real, Heller will keep it. I think Rosen will win the election by the slimmest of margins.
Prediction: Rosen (D) wins, 50-49
Missouri: Josh Hawley (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D), incumbent:
This was the toughest race for me to decide. Missouri leans red pretty heavily and Hawley has momentum. McCaskill has the advantage of being an incumbent. This year, Democrats will likely turn out in higher numbers than most Mid-Terms, but will that be enough to salvage McCaskill’s chances? Simply because I have to make a prediction, I say (with little confidence): yes?
Prediction: McCaskill (D) wins, 50-48
Florida: Rick Scott (R) vs. Bill Nelson (D), incumbent:
For 2020, Florida might be the most consequential state-wide vote, particularly with the governor’s race. With Gillum on the ballot, that could have major ramifications for President Trump’s reelection campaign. As for the Senate, Nelson has been stumbling and Scott was a popular governor. That said, with Gillum polling fairly well in the last couple weeks before the election, I think Nelson will be saved by Democrats voting for Gillum and then voting for him as well.
Prediction: Nelson (D) wins, 51-48
Texas: Ted Cruz (R), incumbent, vs. Beto O’Rourke:
This Senate race has gotten by far the most coverage in the country, with the media writing many a fawning piece over O’Rourke. O’Rourke has a cash advantage over Cruz, but the polls have all pointed Cruz’s way for a month, with a slight tightening over the last week. Money and profiles aside, I don’t believe O’Rourke will be able to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Cruz (R) wins, 52-48