The IOTW 2018 Senate Write-Up and Prediction Extravaganza

I got a lot of great feedback from my House predictions, so I’m back for my Senate predictions and a liveblog later tonight! One comment I got on my House articles was a question as to why I didn’t make a call on every single election with one prediction each. Mainly, that was because I’m not sure if there will be a Red Wall or a Blue Wave, and didn’t want to act like I did.

However, since a lot of you asked, I believe the Democrats will more than likely take the House tonight and that the Blue Wave predictions are more likely to be accurate than my Red Wave ones. I’m not happy to write that, but I wanted to make a concrete prognostication because so many of you asked. And if I turn out to be wrong, I’ll be more than happy to say so tonight! Now, on to my Senate predictions, which I’ll make one prediction for each. And once again, I’d like to warn that these are not what I hope happens, but what I think will happen.

Baseline prediction: Republicans keep control of the Senate, 50-50 with Vice President Pence with a tie-breaking vote.

Arizona: Martha McSalley (R) vs. Kyrsten Sinema (D):

Sinema’s offensive statements about our armed forces during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have taken a toll on her polls and her favorability. McSalley has been campaigning hard in the final stretch and has a good shot of winning. I think the thing that will end up deciding the election is the Green Party candidate, coincidentally named Angela Green, dropping out and endorsing Sinema.

Prediction: Sinema (D) wins, 51-47

North Dakota: Kevin Cramer (R) vs. Heidi Heitkamp (D), incumbent:

In the last few weeks, Heidi Heitkamp has made blunder after blunder, struggling to stem the tide of Kevin Cramer’s momentum, while simultaneously trying to convince voters to reelect her. I believe she has probably failed. Gaffes with ads, including one where she used the name of women who were sexually assaulted without having permission to print their names, were just the final nails in the coffin.

Prediction: Cramer (R) wins, 54-46

Tennessee: Marsha Blackburn (R) vs. Phil Bredesen (D):

Bob Corker’s retirement had Democrats thinking that they could potentially swipe a seat in Tennessee. Despite polling lower than one might expect in a ruby red state, Blackburn has too much going in her favor to make her an underdog. In fact, she has a solid lead, though I think this one will not quite be a blowout.

Prediction: Blackburn (R) wins, 53-47

Nevada: Dean Heller (R), incumbent, vs. Jacky Rosen (D):

This race is, needless to say, a nail-biter. The polls have not swung heavily toward one side or the other in a month, and Heller has the major advantage of being an incumbent. If the Blue Wave is real, Rosen will take the state, but if the Red Wall is real, Heller will keep it. I think Rosen will win the election by the slimmest of margins.

Prediction: Rosen (D) wins, 50-49

Missouri: Josh Hawley (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D), incumbent:

This was the toughest race for me to decide. Missouri leans red pretty heavily and Hawley has momentum. McCaskill has the advantage of being an incumbent. This year, Democrats will likely turn out in higher numbers than most Mid-Terms, but will that be enough to salvage McCaskill’s chances? Simply because I have to make a prediction, I say (with little confidence): yes?

Prediction: McCaskill (D) wins, 50-48

Florida: Rick Scott (R) vs. Bill Nelson (D), incumbent:

For 2020, Florida might be the most consequential state-wide vote, particularly with the governor’s race. With Gillum on the ballot, that could have major ramifications for President Trump’s reelection campaign. As for the Senate, Nelson has been stumbling and Scott was a popular governor. That said, with Gillum polling fairly well in the last couple weeks before the election, I think Nelson will be saved by Democrats voting for Gillum and then voting for him as well.

Prediction: Nelson (D) wins, 51-48

Texas: Ted Cruz (R), incumbent, vs. Beto O’Rourke:

This Senate race has gotten by far the most coverage in the country, with the media writing many a fawning piece over O’Rourke. O’Rourke has a cash advantage over Cruz, but the polls have all pointed Cruz’s way for a month, with a slight tightening over the last week. Money and profiles aside, I don’t believe O’Rourke will be able to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Cruz (R) wins, 52-48

18 Comments on The IOTW 2018 Senate Write-Up and Prediction Extravaganza

  1. Red Wave with few exceptions. Hoping Stefanowski wins in CT. In prayer about this. It makes a difference.

  2. Haha! I’m on the opposite side of the prediction spectrum.

    I look at campaign yard signs.

    I live in a largely red state, controlled by a single county of blue fcuktards and maybe a few collar counties.

    Out here, in the real world, you can see the desperation in campaign yard signs. The blue pill types need to cover their property with signage. When you see a red sign it’s well placed and singular. Where you see no sign, about 97% of the properties I might drive past, I don’t think they’re going to pull the blue handle.

  3. Aurelias — You’ve put a lot of work into this, but I’m going with GIGO. Hard to predict — especially a clear Republican route in the House — when most of the big polling companies are corporate subsidiaries of the big corporate media companies. It’s a late in the day to be trusting those guys. We all know who they are pulling for, right?

    Even if they say that Democrat turnout is huge – that’s turnout, not in-the-booth decisions. Too many people have been personally and positively affected by Trump’s policies, many of them having spent their entire adult life to-date under an admin who told them to never expect decent jobs and a living wage going forward. The contrast couldn’t be more stark or hard-hitting: “Forget about the American Dream — America is no more special than any other country” versus “(Let’s) Make America Great Again, get your chin off your chest and fight!”

    Americans of all political stripes are watching and listening.

  4. I predict, I mean

    I prickdert :

    The GOP is going to sweep everything and
    the commiecrats will be pissing and moaning.

    Much like Hillary, election night 2016.

  5. Polling data is totally inaccurate. It’s weighted to heavy in favor of Libtards. Very few pollsters have changed their model from the 2016 disaster. As landlines disappear, the harder it is to collect data. It’s against federal law to Robo call cell phones so that dialing process become manual taking much longer to complete and shrinking the sample size. There’s difficulties in identifying party affiliation with a cell phone vs a land line and a physical address. A “Likely Voter” is defined as someone who has voted in multiple election. This would not capture the data on a lot of Trump voter during the last election.

    I’m going with a red wave.

  6. I know you put a lot of research into your prediction but on this one I hope you are wrong BFH.

  7. Postie vibes people. Positive vibes.

    Everyone who voted Trump last time around will vote for the party this time around. There will be some, not all, Never Trumpers who will have seen the light so that will be a positive gain in votes.

    There is a very loud and angry Walk Away movement and that will be more not less votes our way. There is the BLexit which will be some more votes our way.

    The Dems are mad as hell. So are we. They will get out the vote- so will we. Any state that is voting to legalize Pot will get a boost from the worthless slacker crowds so Nevada we will loose but over all we will enjoy the lamentations of their women and by that I mean their beta males, bull dikes and whatever “other” box they check off over at CNN & MSNBC.

  8. Just caught “Judge” Napolitano on FBN a moment ago, responding to “What will the D’s do with the House if they get it?”

    Gah!!! Cummings, Schiff, Waters — IN CHARGE of Judiciary, Finance, Intelligence!! OH. MY. GOD!!

    1st order of business: Start impeachment proceedings against Trump and Kavanaugh. Start new investigation into Trump for obstruction of justice so they can get at his tax filings, Nap said that Cummings wants to go after the emoluments clause WRT Trump’s hotels and foreign diplomats, etc. etc. etc.

    Today the D’s are lying all over the place talking about “working across the aisle.”

    (I could have gone all day long without being reminded of THAT!!)

  9. @AbigailAdams:

    Today the D’s are lying all over the place talking about “working across the aisle.”

    The Ds work across the aisle the same way the San Francrisco street people work the gutters and sidewalks.

  10. Obviously the Democrats learned one of the important lessons of 2016: voter turnout is crucial. The Democrats have stressed this for several weeks now, and it gives them a better chance.

    But, I predict the Republicans will increase their Senate majority and hold the House. Reasons:

    1. I place more stock in rallys as a gauge than most people. Trump packs large arenas for his rallys; the Democrats do not. Rallys take time and effort to attend and the size of the audience is an indicator of how motivated voters are.

    2. Although Trump is not officially on the ballot, as a practical matter he is. I don’t think polling organizations are as effective at determining support for Trump or his policies as with other politicians. When the media and the Hollywood types brand Trump supporters as sexist or racist, these supporters just vote without signaling their preference to pollsters.

    3. Does anyone really now what the Democrat platform is? It seems to be “raise taxes, regulate more and let illegal immigrants in.” The Democrat message is ambiguous and frankly concerning; it’s like the Democrats believe things are going good so they must be elected to put a halt to prosperity. The Republicans have the clearer and better message backed up by results.

    4. I’m not overly concerned about the money advantage Democrats have. Most people I know tuned out political ads a few weeks ago, so I’m thinking the flood of campaign cash in the past couple of weeks is largely wasted and this benefits the Republicans.

    Turnout in my area was high, and we are essentially a one party county. My state is basically a blue state, so the Democrats won’t lose any seats, but they may not gain any either unless they match or exceed the Republican turnout.

  11. I caught the tail end of the Michael Savage Show and he was all in mopey, predicting a red wash out because he thinks we are going to lose governorships…and he also predicted big changes at Fox News because Hannity took the stage with Trump last night-especially if the R’s lose badly.

    Anyway, thanks that Mr. Savage! 😖

  12. Illustr8r — I CANNOT STAND to listen to Eyeore Savage. He’s johnny one note and has been since 2016. Stubborn, silly man. I think he’ll keep it up hoping the pendulum will swing back in line with his vaunted opinion. Sad.

  13. it’s going to be a repeat of 2016, only with many many more snowflake tears, and in the morning, lots of people, [thespians], who threatened to leave the country, will not be following through with their threats, [promises].
    same liberal snowflake shit, another wonderfully different day

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