The IOTW Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread

With the Iowa Caucuses later today, practically every political commentator has an opinion one way or another on who will win among the Democrats. I figured I’d throw my analysis in the mix as well, for better or worse. I’d love to hear everyone’s prediction on what’s going to happen. I’ll be making one at the end of this article, after some analysis on my end.

Most polls in Iowa have shown a surge for Bernie Sanders, with a strong majority showing him in the lead. A few have Biden in the lead; the major difference has been because of the methodology of these polls, with the ones with Sanders in the lead emphasizing voters who caucused in 2016, while the ones with Biden in the lead emphasizing primary voters in 2018. I don’t necessarily have a strong opinion on either one, but would tend to lean towards polls who weigh previous caucus-goers more.

Of course, more people than Sanders or Biden are running, with Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Pete Buttigieg hoping for a minor miracle tonight. Ironically, Klobuchar is going to both hurt and help Biden during the caucuses, while Elizabeth Warren will hamstring Sanders, because of Iowa’s idiosyncrasies.

If you’re not up-to-date with Iowa’s rules, and no one can blame you, more or less if your candidate doesn’t receive at least 15% at your caucus site, you must choose another candidate. Klobuchar, who has been polling between about 5-12% for the last few weeks, most likely will not receive 10% or more because many of the caucus locations will not have enough supporters for her to get any votes. Most of those caucus-goers will most likely go to Buttigieg or Biden. This is one of the only ways that Biden has any real chance to win.

Warren, on the other hand, has been regularly been at or above 15%. Sanders will not receive nearly as many second-choice voters because 15% will be just enough to keep those voters with Warren. More than that, many moderate Democrats see Biden as a consensus candidate and, when they see Sanders with a lead at their site, may choose to abandon their candidate to stymie Sanders.

Sanders’s momentum is nothing to be excused, though, and he has been surging both nationally and in Iowa. Many Iowans are still undecided, and will be until they arrive at their caucus tonight. But late-breaking votes towards Sanders would drown Biden and the other candidates. More than that, Sanders has an excellent ground-game in Iowa.

So where does that leave us? In my opinion, a Sanders victory, but one in which both Biden and Sanders receive a larger chunk of the caucus than the polls suggest. My prediction:

Sanders: 30%
Biden: 25%
Warren- 15%
Buttigieg- 14%
Klobuchar- 7%
Yang- 4%
Other- The remaining votes.

31 Comments on The IOTW Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread

  1. My SWAG has the same order, but different %ages:

    Sanders — 32%
    Biden — 19%
    Warren — 12%
    Buttigieg — 10%
    Klobuchar — 9%
    Yang — 5%
    Other — who cares

  2. if sanders wins, does that mean pelosi’s 33 day hold of the impeachment articles makes her and the establishment democrats two time losers ?

    how does epsteins murder and ciamella’s treason hurt hillary being named at a contested convention?

  3. I honestly can’t watch enough of it to remotely guess.

    Amy K has absolutely Zero Energy and Yang is another free shit for everyone.

    but it is unwatchable along with the impeachment nothing berger.

  4. …doesn’t matter. It’s Mooch at the Convention, presented as a reluctant messiah who has to be “drafted”, and she will refuse the crown thrice, but take pity when all the free peoples of the world cry out to her as The Only One who can save them from the Bad Orange Man, so she’ll pull the vorpal sword from the stone and go forth to slay Sauron the Orange with it, triumphantly leading the backslid Wakandians back into the fold…

    …and if you notice I’m mixing my legends, don’t worry, the Democrat voters won’t. Democrats have been very sure to kill any and all types of education that isn’t indoctrination, so all the average young Communist knows is what the Party has TOLD them to know, so Mooch will stride across the land with the flaming sword of RACISM in hand, and slay all those who don’t think cutting a child’s penis off because he smeared Mommmy’s makeup on his face is a good idea and also be the 12th Iman incarnate, brought out by the chaos of Trump to destroy the Unbelievers in the name of a!!ah, all the while saying s/he’s the Son/Daughter of God returned in wrath to put an end to the evil thousand year reign of Drumpf…

    …and if you think I’M over the top, wait ’till you see how THEY play it.

    Better get Barry’s old Invesco Field Greek Temple columns dusted off.

    They’re gonna need a bigger temple…

  5. My only prediction about this cluster of Democrat-Socialists-Reparations-Homosexualists-Freestuffers Party is that Lee Harvey Oswald would have approved of what most of them are advocating for the political party that President John F. Kennedy wouldn’t recognize. The victors of this endless competition to buy voters are heading for a very successful calamity in Milwaukee. That’s where the bloodletting will really begin, when Sanders gets shafted again.

  6. Thirdtwin – How many coin tosses will it take to keep Sanders down this time?

    I thot it wuz vacation homes!
    … or now that he’s more outta the closet, that should be dachas.

  7. 1) Sanders
    2) Buttigeig
    3) Biden
    4) Warren
    5) Klobuchar

    Then the superdelegates will attempt to save their party from their voters and the Bernie Bros will launch their Bolshevik Devolution.

  8. If I were a batshit-crazy Democrat, perhaps I would give a damn. But, since I’m not, I don’t. Just wake me up when it’s over. Now, if I were a betting man, I would wager Big Mike gets the nod.

  9. When Bernie gets the shaft from the democrats, he should immediately switch parties and run as a communist. It would be refreshingly honest move on his part and guarantee his nomination without the back room negotiated deal. Run Comrade, run.

  10. Joey Stalin FEBRUARY 3, 2020 AT 10:37 AM
    “When Bernie gets the shaft from the democrats, he should immediately switch parties and run as a communist.”

    …that’s not a switch in anything but semantics…

  11. Lets hope the DNC can figure out a way to screw Bernie in Iowa. That way we can get the violence started now. Fun Fun.

  12. 1) Novovirus
    2) Garbage Truck Juice
    3) Septic Tank Backup
    4) Roadkill for Dinner
    5) Gas Station Sushi
    6) Any Candidate That Claims to Be In favor of Any of the Above, free, of course.

  13. So Supernightshade, even if it (Mooshell) was elected (won’t happen) we STILL wouldn’t have a woman President then?

  14. ^^^ well, according to Democrats, women CAN have penises, so s/he’ll be a “woman” president if they SAY s/he is…you know, kind of the way they said Barry was “american”…


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