The Monty Hall Problem – IOTW Report

The Monty Hall Problem

It seems straight forward enough, yet a lot of people can’t think past their assumption that everything in the situation is random; it isn’t once one of the three doors has been revealed. Here

Simon Whistler reviews the controversy behind door number three. Watch

34 Comments on The Monty Hall Problem

  1. Fuck them odds, go with your gut, keep your original pick.
    Those “Experts” can choose to 1) Kiss my ass 2) Blow me 3) Eat a bag of dicks
    Pick one assholes, and quit bloviating about changing your original pick.

  2. Yep, many people have covered this and you always change after he shows you one that doesn’t have the prize.
    If there are 3 doors with a prize behind one and you pick randomly, then you have a 1/3 chance of winning. If you don’t change your pick you keep a 1/3 chance of winning. But since one of the other choices has been eliminated, the remaining door has the remaining odds, or 2/3, of winning so you switch your pick to that one.
    If there are more doors then the odds don’t improve by as much, but they always improve because one option was eliminated AFTER you made your choice.

  3. Stay and your odds remain at 1/3 of picking correctly. Once the conditions change by the reveal you can keep your 2/3rd change have having picked wrong or switch to the remaining door and increase your odds to 1/2 or 50%.

    It could still be wrong but you’ve just raised your odds of a correct choice by changing doors, since you know now one of the two doors remaining is the wrong one.

    Monty never reveals the correct door, he can only show you one of the two wrong doors. If you stay you’re still working from 1/3rd chance of being correct. Switch and your odds become 50/50.

  4. Maybe something to contemplate 10 years ago, but with the way things have devolved lately a game show called “Are Yew Smarter Than a Kumquat” featuring with Joe Biden, John Fetterman and AOC is far more appropriate!

  5. Clarification 1 and only
    Are we talking Past Picks
    Or Future Picks
    There is a calculus reason why it matters
    Just asking
    For Future Picks
    Always GO Timing

  6. The past two years the TV show Survivor has had a person’s fate in the game decided by this challenge.
    Both years they chose to keep their original pick.
    They chose wisely, and thus stayed in the game.

    Thing is, there are subliminal clues and unconscious reasons for the picks you choose.

    Plus the fact that the “odds” say change your pick would lock you into changing every time.
    Imagine how much of an ass you would feel like if you change your original pick and it turned out to be correct?
    It would feel worse.

  7. But why, come election time, are we only given two doors (really), yet the booby prize of a donkey or an elephant are behind those doors and nobody EVER gets a good prize?

  8. What’s so wrong with a goat prize?….

  9. I don’t remember Monty offering contestants the ability to change their picks?
    I know the current show with Wayne Brady let’s them do it only on special shows though.
    I remember a few years ago a contestant had a beauty pageant outfit with a crown that had a big #1 on it. She got to do the Big Deal and I was yelling at the screen “Pick #1, it’s on your forehead.”
    Well, she picked #2 and sure enough #1 was the Big Deal.
    I wonder if it dawned on her later?

    I do know that Jimmy Buffett ALWAYS picks “Door Number Three”

    Why the reveal then? – Dr. Tar

  10. Im going to go with the switch before I listen to more. The game show wants suspense to build. Therefore the chance two is where it is increases in probability. They had two to chose from and chose three so door one has a two in three chance of being wrong.

  11. Dr.Tar, I don’t remember Monty doing it that way, showing a door not picked?
    They only do it that way these days on special occasions.

    Either way, my opinion is unchanged.

  12. PS, they still show the unpicked door first and sometimes the second unpicked or the door they picked second.
    Contestants don’t get the option to change their pick.

  13. In addition, LMAD had goats or “Zonks” on the show but I KNOW they didn’t have goats behind two out of three “Big Deal” curtains/doors in a single show.

  14. I don’t deny the odds or the math on this issue.
    My main problem with it is the suggestion that you MUST change your pick when it becomes a 50/50 choice.
    Why can’t you still make a fresh pick being the same one you chose in the first place?
    By saying you MUST CHANGE your pick, you are hoping you picked the wrong one to begin with. Not a sound method of play if you ask me.

    When you make the first pick your odds were one in three. Stay and your odds don’t chance, it remains one in three. After the reveal the remaining door has a 50/50 chance of being the right door. That’s why you should switch. – Dr. Tar

  15. The arrogance of those Neil DeGrasse-Tyson smug, cocksucking bastards who consider my points on this to be an uneducated rube-type stance really chaps my ass.
    That Marilyn Vos Savant cunt as well.
    I used to read her Q&A and the arrogance & condescension dripped right out of the newspaper every time.

  16. Maybe it was just me, but I always thought the contestants dressed funny.

  17. Do you even bother to read my posts Dr. Tar?
    Not being a dick but I explained my thoughts on this yet you hit me with a comment on the odds.
    Who says you should switch?
    The odds? Really?
    I suppose I should never bet a longshot horse to come in then.
    The odds say otherwise, just bet the favorite.
    Kentucky Derby of the past few years would like a word.

  18. It blows me away that people can’t grasp that you can still be making a 50/50 bet when it’s down to two choices and STILL DECIDE to pick the same.

    Automatically picking the other will mean you are wrong in many instances.
    In addition, this assumes a sample size of multiple instances to reach the statistic.
    I am talking about a single instance, going with your gut and sticking to it.
    I have far more faith in my gut being right than some 50/50 decision.
    I’m very happy if that makes me unique and not an insufferable Neil Degrass asshole. (Not saying anyone here is, BTW)

  19. What would make you feel worse:
    Finding out you had it right all along after changing to the wrong one?
    Not changing your pick and being wrong?

    There is only one legitimate answer unless you are a sociopath.

  20. @LBS Don’t switch, I don’t care.

    I had the impression you were wanting an explanation of the reasoning why mathematicians and Marilyn vos Savant say to switch, but if you don’t care, that’s fine too. Just don’t expect those who can see the logic of switching to agree with you on staying put, whatever your justification might be.

  21. Pretty sure Old Monty wouldn’t be trying to get you to change doors unless you already picked the one with the car. I say don’t change.

  22. LocoBlamcoSaltine,
    How do you find all the time for detailed daytime TV coverage too?

  23. The Monty Hall problem requires a cost/benefit analysis. Is the risk of being called a dumbass for switching doors and losing worth the benefit of doubling the chance of winning by switching? It comes down to whether or not one cares what others think. Frankly, I’d rather work to earn money to buy a fungible equivalent of the prize if said prize were that important to me.

  24. This woman is good at one thing: passing a test. She’s done nothing else in her life.

  25. Statistics only hold true for large sample sizes. How many times in your life do you get to pick a curtain?

  26. 7-2 off suit is the worst odds hole cards in hold’ ‘em. It properly gets dumped pre flop. I held 7-2, everyone limped in and I flopped trip deuces. The table played disregarding the deuce pair for good reason. Only big blind would see a flop with that deuce odds say. Turned a seven with a big pot going, won with deuces full of sevens against pocket aces for the dominating second best two pair. Another deuce on the River would have been AWESOME. My boy would have shoved for sure.

    My mind can’t yet wrap around the must switch part of this. I can follow directions though.

  27. Dr, Tar, I don’t care who switches or not, just think you guys are overlooking the forest for the trees.
    Those who feel they must switch EVERY TIME are not correct in their “logic” as you call it.
    It is not a logic problem, BTW.
    Logic problems have known, repeatable outcomes.
    A truth table if you will…

  28. What’s so wrong with a goat prize?…

  29. This game show is still going on?? Did not know that.

  30. Yes, the show is still going on. The fact that this is still called the “Monty Hall Problem”, and not the “Wayne Brady Problem”, proves that mathematics is RACIST!!!!


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