Tracking site suggests White House model is overestimating coronavirus hospitalizations

Just The News: A Website that tracks actual hospital beds in use suggests the model used by top White House health officials to project the trajectory of the coronavirus has so far  overestimated the number of A mericans hospitalized by the disease by tens of thousands. 

Those projections, popularly known as the “Murray” model after the model’s lead author, University of Washington professor Christopher Murray, were explicitly cited by Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, at a press conference in the last week.

Birx told reporters that Murray’s model, which predicts a shortage of tens of thousands of hospital beds throughout the country by the middle of April, underscored the task force’s “concern that we had with the growing number of potential fatalities” based on the model’s projections. 

Yet a comparison of actual hospitalized patients by state and nationally suggests the model has so far overestimated the number of beds needed to treat pandemic patients. 

The forecast predicted, for example, that the United States would need around 164,750 hospital beds for COVID-19 patients on Saturday. Yet the COVID Tracking Project, a team of journalists and data analysts who collect and tabulate coronavirus data from state tallies around the country, reported only around 22,158 currently hospitalized coronavirus patients nationwide on Saturday. READ MORE


13 Comments on Tracking site suggests White House model is overestimating coronavirus hospitalizations

  1. I am curious about your headline. You call it the White House model. It’s actually some egghead at the University of Washington. The White House is listening to “experts” to their detriment.

    But words mean things. It’s not the White House model.

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  2. If the White House has adopted a particular model to the exclusion of others and is using it as a basis for promulgation of policy, it is indeed the White House model.

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  3. Is Vegas running any over/under death bets yet?…..I’d be willing to take the ‘we have enough death beds’ and give the points…..’Less then 100K dead in America by the election’, Hell Ill cover that with everything I own AND give the points….
    Me and my dogs are working up a ‘Fantasy death bed ‘ league. Anybody want to join? It’s just $20 bucks to join until I get enough for a company pontoon boat, for the winter meetings. The Death league will fire up again next November with the next flu season kicking off…

    Disclaimer: no refunds for those that have issues supporting their impending death…

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  4. Meanwhile the Surgeon General tells us this may be the worst week of our entire lives.
    I mean, yeah there is no NCIS this week, but I think we’ll survive. Most of us, anyway.

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  5. Look at the reality around you.

    Do you see overcrowded emergency rooms, no hospital beds available for admissions, ambulances going everywhere, etc.?

    If not, maybe you’re not getting the true picture from those pushing it on you in the MSM.

    FWIW, I live near a hospital branch emergency center and am used to hearing ambulance sirens frequently during both the day and the night. At least four or five everyday and I’m usually not home all day to hear them all.

    Since this emergency stuff started I’ve heard exactly three sirens (all on the same day last Friday, interestingly enough) and am home far more than usual so I would expect to be hearing more.

    Go figure.

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  6. @america bob.

    The U Wash model is one of many being considered. You don’t model based on best case scenario and it’s important to evaluate all inputs.

    My point is that it’s not THE WHITE HOUSE MODEL. The White House doesn’t model. They receive input and act in accordance with the best info available.

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  7. Did it occur to anyone else that when you call this a “deadly virus” on TeeVee, 24/7 for three months, with hourly death tally on all media, that anyone with a cough or sniffles is going to be running to the hospital? So of course you will be having hospital emergency rooms over-crowded. Especially in places like NTC, where you have the largest concentration of neurotics on the planet. I come from a long line of hypochondriacs; I know how this works.

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  8. Ya’ll do realize the point of the ‘flattening the curve’ lockdown strategy was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed?

    What worries me is that people have been fleeing the port cities / open borders / globalist shitholes and bringing the infection to YOUR TOWN. Your local medical system has had a bit more time to prepare, but that mostly means more ventilators – where half the people die and the other half wish they had.

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