The IOTW New Hampshire Primary Prediction Thread – IOTW Report

The IOTW New Hampshire Primary Prediction Thread

Tuesday, 9 February 2016, 14:45 Aurelius Uncategorized 20

Unlike Iowa, for me, New Hampshire is proving extremely difficult to read. I, like nearly everyone not running for President, am assuming that Donald Trump is going to emerge with his first official victory of the campaign. But by what percent and, almost as importantly, who is going to finish behind him is giving me more consternation.

Did Rubio destroy his chances of coming in second with his debate performance on Saturday? What about John Kasich, who’s apparently surging at the right time? I’ll do my best below to make predictions on the final results. Please let me know who you think will come out on top.

Donald Trump is way out ahead in the polls. But he was in Iowa too, and I correctly predicted that he would end up losing there. Some of the same problems are there for Mr. Trump: many of his voters don’t normally go to the polls, so he needs a strong get out the vote ground game. Every report that I’ve read says that that’s not really in place.

While it’s tough to gauge, I think, once again, Mr. Trump will not do as well as the polls suggest. I think he’ll win, but not by the 20% that some polls have him at.

The person who had the best organization in Iowa also has a good one in place in New Hampshire: Ted Cruz. I suspect that he will fair a little better in the end than polls would suggest.

Establishment-lane Republicans are the toughest to read. There’s Bush, Kasich, Christie, Rubio, and Fiorina. Yes, Fiorina’s an “outsider,” but when she drops out, her supporters are going to go to one of the establishment candidates. First, I believe Ms. Fiorina is going to struggle to get 2% of the vote. The same goes for Dr. Carson. The other four are extremely tough to read.

Mr. Kasich, from what I’ve been reading, has some momentum on the ground. Like Marco Rubio in Iowa, it’s coming at the exact right time. Rubio, for his part, is fading at the very worst time for his campaign. Had he not flubbed so badly Saturday night, Rubio would have won 2nd place easily. Now I’m not so sure he’ll be as high as fourth.

Governor Christie, in my opinion, is not going to do terribly well and will probably finish sixth. For all his attacks on Mr. Rubio, he hasn’t seemed to catch any momentum. And the reason for that is simple: he hurt Rubio, but didn’t really give any reason why he is the best. He said governors have more responsibilities than Senators, but there are two other governors in the race, who are both polling better than him in New Hampshire.

Finally, Jeb Bush is probably the biggest wild card. I don’t think he’ll be within a point or two of his polling average. I believe he’ll either do surprisingly well or crash and burn.

Here are my predictions:

Trump: 27.3%
Kasich: 18.2%
Rubio: 15.8%
Cruz: 15.2%
Bush: 14.5%
Christie: 4.6%

And just for fun:

Sanders: 53.7%
Clinton: 46.1%

19 Comments on The IOTW New Hampshire Primary Prediction Thread

  1. Aurelius, you da man. If you are on the ground in NH, you can sense things without the media filters we wear.

    Having said that, cannot registered NH Democrats vote in this primary and thus greatly affect results?
    That could explain a Kasich surge, or even an unexpected Lazarus-rebirth of Yeb!

  2. I think a lot of Trump’s numbers are simply a matter of name recognition. I agree, I think he’ll win, but I think it will be very close.

    Trump 24%
    Cruz 21%
    Rubio 17%
    Kasich 12%

    Sanders 54%
    Clinton 46%

  6. I think Cruz will win in NH. A lot of polling comes out for Trump but it would seem a curious change happens in the booth and the voter’s hand is on the lever. It happened in Iowa and there is no reason to think it won’t happen here. At least I hope so.

  10. Sorta on/t sorta o/t

    For those who say Trump
    can’t make Mexico “pay” for The Wall

    EXCERPT
    “Remittances sent home by Mexicans working outside the country surpassed petroleum revenues in 2015 for the first time. There was a 4.75% increase in money sent from abroad, most of which comes from the U.S., to total US $24.8 billion last year, up from $23.6 billion in 2014, said the Bank of México.”

    http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/02/09/prescient-trump-hidden-report-mexico-remittances-total-more-than-entire-mexican-oil-revenue/

  11. Somebody gonna win; somebody else gonna loose.

    I 100% guarantee it.

    Winner’s usually the biggest bullshitter …
    (thas what I always strived for … strivened for … strove for?)

  15. 25 – TRUMP
    15 – one of A
    12 – one of A
    12 – one of A

    A = Rubio, Kasich, Bush

    §§§

    NOTE TO CRUZ SUPPORTERS:

    Though I prefer Trum AND will vote for Cruz if he gets the nomination…WE’RE TALKING “Commie Hampshire” here.

    Cruz MAY be in that 12% zone – considering how volatile the State is traditionally – but REMEMBER: seeing as how so-called “Independents” MAY VOTE IN THIS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY, all bets are off other than Trump wins (barring Microsoft fraud).

  18. I just voted in Merrimack. It took forever. The official village idiots only gave us one voting location and only one entrance for a town of 25 thousand! The attorney general received so many complaints he showed up and smacked them upside their heads. Meanwhile, Megyn Kelly is blaming us voters telling us that we should have gotten up earlier or to put down the pot roast. What an ignorant bit@h.

1 Trackbacks & Pingbacks

  1. It's Time to Mock These Predictions - Daily Pundit

Comments are closed.

iOTWreport.com ©2024 ----- iOTWreport is not responsible for the content of comments. All opinions in comments are solely the commenter's.