The IOTW Nevada Caucus Prediction Thread – IOTW Report

The IOTW Nevada Caucus Prediction Thread

Tuesday, 23 February 2016, 15:00 Aurelius Uncategorized 40

With no new polls within the last week, attacks being levied against each candidate, and Jeb out of the race, it’s going to be a tough night to call. Well, let’s do it anyway.
Rubio and Trump
Please comment with your predictions; I’ll write mine after a bit of analysis.

I’m sure it will come as no surprise to anyone that in the two most recent polls, Donald Trump was up big. The most recent one was taken from 2/14-2/15, which was immediately after Mr. Trump’s statements about President Bush lying about Iraq, and so on.

Over the course of that week in South Carolina, Mr. Trump’s poll numbers steadily decreased. I suspect the same will happen in the final results in Nevada. CNN’s poll, taken from 2/10-2/15 predicted Mr. Trump would receive 45% of the vote. I don’t believe it will be nearly this high, but I do think Mr. Trump will come away with a win, in part because his final victory in South Carolina may have stymied his decline in the polls.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, Marco Rubio saw a steady rise in the polls in South Carolina in the week up to the election, leading to his second place finish, in front of Ted Cruz. Mr. Rubio and Mr. Cruz were battling for second in Nevada’s polls as well. Three days removed from South Carolina, Mr. Rubio seems to have momentum, as well as a slew of new endorsements, including from statewide representatives from Nevada.

In addition to that, Mr. Rubio also spent much of his life in Nevada, which I think will also play a role in the final results. With momentum, and with much of the electorate trying to “stop” Mr. Trump, I believe that Mr. Rubio will do decidedly better than the polls from a week ago suggest.

Mr. Cruz, separately, does not seem to have the momentum that Mr. Trump or Mr. Rubio do. Whatever your opinion of Mr. Cruz, the allegations of untruthfulness have hurt him. The caucuses are today; last night, every news organization at least mentioned that Mr. Cruz asked for the resignation of his Communications Director. These things hurt a campaign, and I believe it will really hurt Mr. Cruz.

John Kasich and Ben Carson will have very little support, as always, but they’ll sap votes mainly away from Mr. Cruz and Mr. Rubio.

My prediction:
Trump: 37.9%
Rubio: 30.2%
Cruz: 21.2%
Kasich: 6.3%
Carson: 5.4%

40 Comments on The IOTW Nevada Caucus Prediction Thread

  3. “In addition to that, Mr. Rubio also spent much of his life in Nevada”

    Which is strange because I live in LV and I never heard anyone talking about him living here. I haven’t seen a single Rubio bumper sticker. I’ve seen Carson, Cruz, Trump and even one Bernie and a Hillary. But not one Rubio. So much for the homeboy. lolz

  5. The source of Rubio’s endorsements are as much a black mark against him as were those for Jeb. The same old political clap trap endorsing him is not a badge of honor.

    Hope for real change is very hard to kill, but I like that the established RINOs dislike Ted. It gives me hope. Trump’ popularity is because he swims against the sludge of the sick flow of current politics. Ted’s should be the same.

  6. MJ, Marco’s cousin is Mo Denis, Nevada State Senator representing (I think) the 2nd district. He used to hold a leadership position but got the boot over something I can’t quite recall. And for what’s it’s worth, I live on the frontier and hear the same thing about Trump.

  8. Trump looks like a prune face in that photo. Rubio looks great. There has got to be a beauty pageant factor in the polls.

    Rubio wins the beauty portion of this contest, including the swimsuit competition.

    Cruz wins the artistic talent award. Need I say more?

    Trump wins and wins and wins and wins presence and poise.

    Dr. Carson wins Mr. Congeniality.

    Carly Fiorino and what’s his name from Ohio, were not picked as finalists.

  15. Sounds like normally very low caucus turnout is spiking upward, primarily because of Trump. The Dirty Trick O Meter is on red alert, lots of campaign chatter warning voters about Cruz. Unreliable polls, but polls nonetheless, put Trump out in front by a wide margin.

    I’m with csteventucker on this one. And Rubio surpasses Cruz by double digits. (It’s a guess, not science.)

  17. What explains the popularity of a declared socialist for the Dems and an uncouth egotistical billionaire for the Republicans being so popular in this presidential cycle? The Democrats expected Obama to be their savior. He would right every wrong, Heal our shame both racially and nationally and restore prosperity to the nation. However, his policies have been a dismal failure. The economy has, at best, limped along for 8 years. Black Americans are poorer than ever. Racial tensions are worse now than the last 50 years. The world no longer has any respect for America. Republicans won overwhelmingly in the midterms with promises to stop Obama, prosecute the wrong doers and bring fiscal responsibility to DC. Spending and deficits have grown. Obama is ruling by executive order and not one criminal act has been prosecuted. What did the American people get for their vote? More disappointment and failure. Both parties have offered America a s#!t sandwich. Now they are furious and confused that we don’t want to take another bite of the same old sandwich. The establishment has no one to blame but themselves.

  20. The guy from Pawn Stars is a Vegas guy & HE endorsed Rubot, so I predict Rubot beats Cruz for the 2nd place “win” with Donald “losing” by finishing in first place. Maybe Carson finally moves up if people have tired of the Cruz campaign’s shenanigans and Carson takes the 3rd place “win”. Kasich “wins” last place. I also predict more dirty tricks by team Ted because apparently that is just how he rolls. When called out on said dirty tricks, I predict another backhanded non-apology.

  22. We’re all ticked off at the establishment. Yet the one guy who is just short of conservative perfection must be punished by way of us voting for the establishment pick simply because the nearly perfect guy dared to talk about the very same CNN report that the establishment pick was talking about.

    Does it matter that the guy just short of conservative perfection fired the guy that was repeating the same things that the establishment pick was saying? Of course not!! He “lied” therefore he cannot be considered. Instead, we gotta go with the gang of eight establishment guy. Because repeating CNN reports that someone else was repeating is “lying.”

    A CNN report about a third candidate dropping out who happens to currently be polling behind !Yeb! who himself has already dropped out. But that doesn’t matter right now. What ultimately matters is who lied about repeating a CNN report. Not GITMO, not ISIS, not the VA, not welfare, not the border. Someone LIED (aka repeated a CNN report) about someone else that very few people are going to vote for in the primary. Unforgivable! I naively used to think our side was distinguished from the other side.

    Anyway, the casino guy wins the casino kingdom with useful idiots putting the establishment pick in second place. We don’t deserve the guy that is just short of conservative perfection, same as we didn’t deserve Palin.

    But other than the above, I have no strong feelings either way.

  25. Thanks, Jane! Even though I’m under Cruz control, I’ve been gobbling up everything Trump Jr. and I hadn’t seen this one yet. Of the Trump boys, everyone seems to be smitten with Eric, yet I swear that is solely due to his similar looks. This guy is infectious. Dad should put him in for Josh Earnest’s job and I am being sincere.

    I mean, you know, should Trump win the nomination.

  34. I .can’t think of a stupider way of running a primary than a caucus. And what’s the deal with making predictions to a tenth of a percent? It’s a Guess!!!! Whole numbers are good enough!

  37. Aurelius — You said that Kasich and Carson would pull votes from Cruz and Rubio. Ben Carson is the only other real outsider in this race. Some of his religious supporters *may* go to Cruz, but Trump is also getting those evangelicals, just look at S.C. Trump is also going to get those voters who do not want a D.C. club member. Why do you think Trump will not profit from Kasich and Carson leaving the race?

  39. MSNBC huh? Here’s the deal with Nevada. At least Northern Nevada. Northern Nevada is chalked full of California Manufacturers that fled here and moved to Nevada to save their shit. Ultimately when there’s no market there’s no market. Cali wasn’t the entire problem. I’ve said this before, if you make a living with your hands, you’re probably voting Trump. Don’t be surprised if Trump wins Cali.

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