Welcome to the IOTW prediction thread on this Super Tuesday. I’ll be making state-by-state predictions below, but it is a near certainty that Donald Trump is positioned for a big night.
I’m putting my (kind of) perfect record on the line tonight. Unlike other publications, in the GOP race, I’ve called #1 and #2 correct in every state so far, though there have only been four. Even sites like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics got things wrong; I had Cruz winning Iowa, they had Trump. I had Kasich coming in second in New Hampshire, they had Rubio. RealClearPolitics also had Trump in first in Iowa and Rubio in second in New Hampshire.
So let’s see how terrible/well I do tonight. Please post your predictions below.
Say what you will about last week’s debate, but one of the biggest things it did was change the narrative from “Who will challenge Trump?” to “Trump and Rubio are feuding.” Donald Trump is still way in the lead, there’s no doubt about that. But Rubio has gained much more press than Cruz since last Thursday, and his rallies have swelled.
For late-deciders, this will mean they’ll probably break toward Rubio. However, Trump’s supporters are already locked in, so I don’t think late-deciders will come close to completely changing the political landscape today. What they will do, however, will give Rubio several more second-place finishes than Cruz. And I also think they’ll give Mr. Rubio a coveted win (but probably just one).
If Mr. Rubio does not win a state tonight, I believe his campaign is over. To many (if not most), it will prove that he cannot win a state.
Mr. Cruz is facing an uphill battle. I think he’ll win Texas, but losing most of the South to Mr. Trump will completely undermine his argument that he can win more conservative states. For Cruz’s campaign to survive, he needs a resounding win in Texas and a couple of southern states.
Mr. Trump is set for a big night. He has large leads in most of the Super Tuesday states and, after tonight, he’ll have about twice as many delegates than whoever’s in second. The question is whether Kasich, Carson, Cruz, or Rubio will drop out in the days to come.
One major factor in my predictions are the national sentiments of the race, which have Mr. Trump in the lead. Many of my predictions also incorporated whether a candidate visited and if a state-wide official (like a governor or senator) endorsed them. Finally, I also took momentum into consideration.
My predictions for this Super Tuesday:
Alabama:
Trump: 42%
Rubio: 26%
Cruz: 17%
Carson: 8%
Kasich: 7%
Alaska:
Trump: 36%
Cruz: 32%
Rubio: 16%
Carson: 11%
Kasich: 5%
Arkansas:
Trump: 30%
Cruz: 28%
Rubio: 25%
Carson: 10%
Kasich: 7%
Georgia:
Trump: 38%
Rubio: 25%
Cruz: 20%
Carson: 9%
Kasich: 8%
Massachusetts:
Trump: 44%
Rubio: 22%
Kasich: 17%
Cruz: 10%
Carson: 7%
Minnesota (Caucus):
Rubio: 37%
Trump: 30%
Cruz: 20%
Kasich: 7%
Carson: 6%
Oklahoma:
Trump: 35%
Rubio: 28%
Cruz: 24%
Carson: 10%
Kasich: 3%
Tennessee:
Trump: 40%
Rubio: 24%
Cruz: 23%
Carson: 8%
Kasich: 5%
Texas:
Cruz: 36%
Trump: 28%
Rubio: 21%
Carson: 8%
Kasich: 7%
Vermont:
Trump: 34%
Rubio: 29%
Cruz: 21%
Kasich: 10%
Caron: 6%
Virginia:
Trump: 40%
Rubio: 30%
Cruz: 17%
Carson: 8%
Kasich: 5%
Wyoming (which doesn’t really matter because its delegates are unbound):
Trump: 35%
Rubio: 32%
Cruz: 19%
Kasich: 10%
Carson: 4%
I’ll reserve my predilections until tomorrow – when I’ll have a clearer prevarication of the aforementioned clairvoyances.
Cruz may very well win Texas based on his homeboy status there. I honestly cannot think of any reason why voters in other states would not favor Trump.
I’m also predicting Carson and/or Kasich will withdraw tomorrow if they fail to gain many delegates. I haven’t done the math yet, but I think it may be impossible to gain enough ground after Super Tuesday to be the nominee with the numbers these two have now.
Rubio will not withdraw even if he has a lousy night. He’s an obnoxious little shit who will have to be dragged from this race kicking and screaming.
After listening to Rush this morning I expect Trump to have a much better day than the polls indicate.
I predict massive vote fraud that will be blamed on “glitches”, but will favor Rubio and Cruz every time.
BTW, it’s already happened in Travis County Texas.
I have no Idea
But I’m sure Al Sharpton predictifies the electraseizmographical procedures will be exemplicable of the shadicious Republican manueverifics.
I’ll be asleep. 12 hour shift for the next 3 months.
The last few days have been remarkably enlightening–The GOP elite are WORSE than the progressive Dems. They are loathsome lying pieces of shit. This whole David Duke KKK crap is insulting on every level, and every bit as dishonest as ANYTHING Hillary has done. When you attack, demean, disgrace and shame Trump you are essentially attacking US voters. Why can’t the fucking GOP let the VOTERS choose without all these dirty tricks? I despise the GOP now. And somebody better tell them that if they by some massive fraudulent sleaze bag move Romney is the nominee I will actively campaign for Hillary. Disparaging Sessions was the last FUCKING STRAW
I predict more collective seat-wetting by the establishment GOP as the Donald and his Mad-as-Hell-Not-Going-To-Take-It-Anymore supporters continue to eat their lunch and grind them into oblivion.
Speaking of the KKK, why should Mr. Trump disavow the blatherings of the Grand Dragon of a Demonrat organization?
And why is Speaker Ryan pretending not to understand?
I smell BULLSHIT!!!
Does anyone doubt what lengths the ruling class will resort to in their fanaticism of stopping Trump? Would they go the Vince Foster route or the plane crash route? I have no question they are capable.
I predict that Lindsay Graham and John McStain will collectively ????? their pants along with Mitchy Bitch and the rest of the GOPee after The Donald wins big.
Being the eternal optimist ,am going with Trump for the lead,and Cruzio out! Can I win a whistle?
Where is Mr.Pinko?
We need some words of wisdom.
Kill ’em Donald, KILL ‘EM ALL!
Strangle Ted Cruz with the entrails of Marco Rubio!
Trump 2016
I haven’t been wrong yet. . . I still predict that whoever gets the most votes will win.
The wailing and gnashing of teeth by establishment RNC pukes and leftists is very telling. The RNC is in self-destruct mode, and the vile miscreants who have repeatedly stabbed their base in the back cannot put the proverbial toothpaste back into the tube. Everyone sees them as the self-serving pricks they are, so the party is toast. I predict Trump will win every state except Texas. Cruz will squeak by with the win there. Rubio won’t win any states. Kasich and Cason will drop out after low single digit returns in every state.
If I really cared, I would have spent the time putting together pretty much the same predictions. I see you even got MN correct!
The infighting this round is horrible, fingers? spray tan? wtf? It’s obvious Trump is the popular vote, but it’s also obvious that threw a wrench into the works. Someone other than Rubio is pushing Rubio and it’s probably goofs like Bill O’Really.
I wouldn’t put it past the GOP establishment to solicit democrats and beg them to forego voting for Shrill or Bern in order to do anything to dump Trump.
Texas: Cruz. Trump second.
Alabama: Cruz. Trump second.
Alaska: Trump, Rubio second.
Arkansas: Trump, Cruz second.
Georgia: Trump, Rubio second.
Massachusetts: Trump, Rubio second.
Minnesota: Trump, Rubio second.
Oklahoma: Cruz, Trump second.
Tennessee: Cruz, Trump second.
Vermont: Trump, Rubio second.
Virginia: Trump, Rubio second.
Wyoming: Cruz, Rubio second.
Carson and Katshit won’t even come in third place in any state.
Carson will drop out by 10pm. Kasey will stay in the race until Ohio, which is pointless, if that’s the only state he has a chance in, why bother?
Rubio will come in second or third in every state (could eek out a win in Virginia) But he won’t drop out until he loses in Florida.
By March 15th, it’ll be down to Trump and Cruz.
By April 19th, Trump will be close to winning after getting the delegates in New York, and Cruz will drop out, declaring Trump the winner.
Winner tonight? Trump, but if Cruz wins Texas, he’ll have a shit-ton of delegates.
TO GFY
RE: Carson
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/dr-ben-carson-gop-elites-have-offered-me-money-to-quit-race/
In the end, things will be pretty muddled;
Virginia – Trump, Rubio, Cruz
Georgia – Cruz, Trump Rubio
Texas – Cruz, Trump, Rubio
Massachusetts – Trump, Rubio, Kasich
Oklahoma – Cruz, Trump, Rubio
Alabama – Trump, Rubio, Cruz
Tennessee – Cruz, Trump, Rubio
Arkansas – Cruz, Rubio, Trump
Vermont – Trump, Rubio, Cruz
Minnesota – Cruz, Rubio, Trump
Alaska – Cruz, Trump, Carson
With delegates divided between finishers it will be an interesting total at the end of the night. I wish Rubio would be knocked out, but I doubt that will happen. With Kasich and Carson getting third in a couple States look for them to hang around at least until the weekend.
OT, sort of.
I happened to catch this while on the road today. I think he gets it.
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/03/01/the_elites_won_t_figure_out_the_trump_phenomenon_until_they_re_honest_with_themselves_about_what_they_ve_done
/
Roger stone has an article posted upon Breitbart. It details how they plan to steal the nomination regardless of how well trump does its called rule 40.
I believe that this will lead to violence. They are openly defying the will of the people. They will stop at nothing to keep their mafia stranglehold On us
Trump is the Frankenstein Monster child born out of neglect between the aloof, absent establishment and the faithful base.
He is hideous, he is beautiful and he has climbed the Empire State building and is swatting planes out of the sky.
He will eat the establishment alive, then forgive them and cut a deal and give them new life if only to live to thwart him.
The GOP deserves it.
I had a fevered dream of a contested Convention where they trot out Romney and pair him up with Rubio for the Uber Establishment ticket.
Mrs. Lazlo had to deploy countermeasures due to my thrashing around.
My predictions – I dunno since I have mostly zoned out this week. Must have inhaled too many fumes from the OPI nail polish Sunday night.
Kasich will drop out until after March 15th when he loses Ohio. Then we’ll have the joy of 2 more years of a Kasich governorship, common core, Obozocare proliferation and Moslem importation. Jack*ss expanded Medicaid against the wishes of the citizens just to score political points. Dope.
Carson will not drop out yet. Carson has a message to spread and being a candidate is the best way to draw an audience and the press.
Czar, thanks for the link I didn’t realize the GOPe had it in for Carson to this degree. I thought they were saving up all their venom to spew on Trump, who is absolutely dangerous to their cause.
Phooey on percentage.
They were fun and entertaining in Iowa and NH, but it’s time to be BIG BOYS.
IT’S ALL ABOUT DELEGATES.
YOUR numbers suggests
(sorry, I’m sick and didn’t do DEEP analysis, just an educated guesstimate)
275 Trump
160 Cruz
120 Rubio
20 Kasich
20 Carson
NO WAY Cruz gets 2/3 of Trump’s delegates.
THINK
400 Trump
100 Cruz
60 Rubio
20 Kasich
15 Carson
TODAY it’s
82 Trump
17 Cruz
16 Rubio
LET’S SEE!!!
i know who is going to win, and i know who is going to lose and i’m not telling.
I am in Texas and assure you Cruzzie boy has little home town advantage for a Canadian born politician…Trump all the WAY……
There was an interesting comment in the media today…suppose you have racoons invading your basement, tearing up everythingk, destroying your house from within, electrical wiring, heating and a/c ducts, stored treasures…and you cannot get rid of them, no matter what mediocre tradesman comes along…until the one with bad hair, buttcrack showing, egotistical, independently minded, proves he can rid the muckers out of your house….get the drift?? we hire the Donald to do the job the rest of the mealy mouthed rats cannot or will not do…period.
Why they gotta be coons?