Stat: In a rare piece of good news about Covid-19, a team of infectious disease experts calculates that the fatality rate in people who have symptoms of the disease caused by the new coronavirus is about 1.4%. Although that estimate applies specifically to Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak began, and is based on data from there, it offers a guide to the rest of the world, where many countries might see even lower death rates.
The new figure is significantly below earlier estimates of 2% or 3% and well below the death rate for China based on simply dividing deaths by cases, which yields almost 4%. While it is still higher than the average 0.1% death rate from seasonal flu, it raises hopes that the worst consequence of the coronavirus will be uncommon.
Cutting against that optimism is the expectation that, because no one was immune to the new virus, “the majority of the population will be infected” absent the quick arrival of a vaccine or drastic public health interventions such as closing public places and canceling public events, the scientists conclude in a paper submitted to a journal but not yet peer-reviewed.
The expectation that a “majority” of a population will become infected reflects a worst-case scenario about who encounters whom, something modelers call “homogeneous mixing.” But even the more realistic assumption that not everyone mixes with everyone else means that “at least a quarter to a half of the population will very likely become infected” absent social distancing measures or a vaccine, conclude Joseph Wu and Kathy Leung of the University of Hong Kong, leaders in the modeling of infectious diseases, and their colleagues. more
Oriental Chinese Wuhan Manchurian Dink Asian Hubei Huanan Seafood Kung Flu WuFlu novelcoronafukken virus.
(To be accompanied by any good blues riff)
My wife done left me
My side piece too
They says I’m contagious
I don’t know what to do
My temperature’s normal
My belly feels good
My other piece she happy
I still gots some wood.
The man say don’t work
But the crib rent’s due
My money’s all gone
I got the WuHuFlu Blues
the boomer flu
I don’t believe ANYTHING coming out from China. They lied from the beginning and are still lying.
Flu death rate is not .1%, that’s a figure based on “estimates “. The rate is 10% when you take in actual statistics and not estimates.
I just looked at the CDC 2018-2019 US —>>>FLU <<<— data.
The CDC estimated that influenza virus infections caused 531,000–647,000 hospitalizations; and 36,400–61,200 deaths in the United States.
Using a popular Percentage website and the CDC's own high figures, I got 9.45904173106646% death rate to FLU hospitalizations .
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Using the CDC data for US Convid-19 Infections vs. Deaths
March 19th, 2020
Total cases: 10,442
Total deaths: 150
I get 1.4365064163953267% for the Convid-19 Virus.
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Even using the Worldomedia Convid-19 website.
It see 13,671 "reported" US cases and 191 deaths
I still get 1.397117986979738%
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Maybe there is a misunderstanding, because I found a American Hospital Association report that speaks of higher death rates but using different data elements as a bases for a death rate.
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American Hospital Association (3-18-20)
"According to the report, an estimated 21% to 31% of U.S. COVID-19 patients between Feb. 12 and March 16 were hospitalized, with 5% to 12% admitted to an intensive care unit. An estimated 1.8% to 3.4% of U.S. COVID-19 patients died over the period." Different data.