CATO: “Death Toll Hits 9 as Outbreak Spreads,” was the scary Wall Street Journal headline in print before it was toned down online. COVID-19 deaths at a nursing home and hospital in Washington state were unrelated to the virus spreading “across the U.S.” The facts tell us much more about the exceptionally high risks of fatal infection from COVID-19 (or pneumonia or flu) among elderly people living close together in nursing homes or hospitals, many of them already sick.
The ongoing COPD-19 outbreak in Kirkland Washington at the Life Care nursing home and Evergreen hospital represents high‐risk concentrations of vulnerable seniors. Among those who died in Washington, all but two were in their 70s or 80s (the other two in their 50s) and most had “underlying health conditions.” Evergreen hospital has two more in critical condition, in their 70s and 90s, both with underlying conditions.
What we just learned from Washington was already known from China’s experience A February 24 article by Katarina Zimmer in The Scientist provides an excellent summary:
“The latest data from China stem from an analysis of nearly 45,000 confirmed cases, and on the whole suggest that the people most likely to develop severe forms of COVID-19 are those with pre‐existing illnesses and the elderly.While less than 1 percent of people who were otherwise healthy died from the disease, the fatality rate for people with cardiovascular disease was 10.5 percent. That figure was 7.3 percent for diabetes patients and around 6 percent for those with chronic respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. While overall, 2.3 percent of known cases [in China] proved fatal—which many experts say is likely an overestimate of the mortality rate, given that many mild cases might go undiagnosed—patients 80 years or older were most at risk, with 14.8 percent of them dying.”
The Scientist article point about the death rate being “less than 1 percent” among the healthy and also the point about the 2.3% Chinese estimate being a “an overestimate” because “many mild cases might go undiagnosed” underscore similar points I made in a March 2 blog. My concern is that misinformation about COVID-19 has fueled excessive fear of the virus by greatly exaggerating the actual death rate per hundred people infected (the infection fatality rate). Keep reading
This seems to be virus that doesn’t affect children, lets healthy adults that catch it end up recovering and kills the old and infirm.
Helps thin out the population of the no longer productive members, almost like it was designed that way.
All this week, on the radio, normally level-headed Lars Larson has been in full panic mode over corona virus. Feeding the frenzy. The MSM is almost gleefully giving the daily body count, in hopes this thing can be blamed on President Trump.
Well, the good news is that traffic at Ground Zero (western WA) has become very light. We normally have commutes rated at about 9.6 ‘Inslee’s’ (on a 10 scale). Keep in mind that some use the more local ‘Dim Bulb’ measurement convention where 1 Inslee = 2.41 Dim Bulbs. Hey, it’s the Soviet State of Washington; things are pretty screwed up here.
It is like predicting the whether with the WHO. They had huge estimated cases of Ebola that never panned out and they never are held accountable for misinformation. And yet ever time they scream jump the media and world governments do.
It was designed that way. It’s a derivative of a man made, patented virus.
…and yet with all the CoronaVirus panic, Seattle geeks still plan to assemble together at the Emerald City ComicCon this weekend.
Cosplay Germ Fighters Unite!
I have been checking this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
which seems to have good numbers and is being updated constantly.
Note that while China seems to have a handle on it, S. Korea is starting to get it under control – but it is taking off in Iran and Italy. I thought the prognosis looked good a week ago, now we aren’t seeing crazy increases globally but certainly enough to be very concerned.
Note countries like Switzerland and Belgium which have huge percentage increases today. The New Cases column accumulates for the current day, turning over at midnight GMT.
Larry Kudlow, Trump’s Director of the National Economic Council said on CNBC this morning,
“I would avoid Seattle.”
Yeah, I try to avoid Seattle, too, but I was down there the other day and traffic was almost zero.
In other news, the University of Washington is shifting ALL of its classes ONLINE for the remainder of the semester. Wow. Who knew you didn’t have to be present to get a college degree?!
I like the Iranian practice of licking the monument to ward off the virus. Proof, you can’t fix stupid.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/fears-mount-as-iranian-lick-the-shrine-videos-go-viral-amid-coronavirus-outbreak
…oh, get OVER it, already! I went to a Doc-in-a-Box yesterday for a hand issue, sat in the waiting room, even had a little Asian woman doctor, and I’m FINE!
*cough*
Anonymous; Seems to me that thinning out non-productive humans doesn’t just apply to older folks, because there are lots of younger folks that have chosen to be non-productive. Take for example, cellar dwellers.
@SNS: Well, for us ‘old guys,’ certain precautions are necessary. The consensus is building that there’s an age-related susceptibility function.
Pd = .0018 x (A – S)
where Pd ≡ probability of death
A ≡ your age
S ≡ number of times you have sex per month
That’s why I shop when the store is empty and wear Nitrile gloves in ground zero’s Safeway store.
Does this make any sense? The math hasn’t been verified and I’ve got a problem with ‘S.’
Hmmm … kills the aged and the infirm.
And Bloomberg thinks “elderly” people, when they come down sick, should just be told to go home and enjoy what little time they have left.
AND Bloomberg is heavily invested in CHINA!
Does he deal in bio-research in Wuhan, by any chance?
(President Trump was impeached on flimsier shit)
izlamo delenda est …
Mecca and Medina are basically closed for visitors.
Dammit, Call back the B52’s
Ha! Emerald City Comic Con has just been cancelled and rescheduled for this summer.
Got a text from a friend who works at a game company. He’s packing up his multiple computers to work from home for the next 3 weeks. No one in his office is sick. He’s not panicked (he’s a Righty) but the rest of his office are convinced the end is near. Millennials who don’t fit the “profile” of those most at risk. They think universal healthcare that Bernie is offering will save them. Ugh.
The fuckers on the news are just trying to scare the shit out of everyone so the stock market looks much worse than reality which then can be used as a talking point against TRUMP.
Yes it is dangerous to a significant degree, but daily lives cannot be halted.
if they slow it down significantly then a vaccine will start to be available within 6 months.
Stay calm, keep perspective!
Most of North America is not a shit hole.
Chicago had 68 murders by Mar 1/2020 and the Democrats don’t seem to care.
Maybe God is really pissed at the human race and can’t stand us any longer. If I was God that’s how I would feel.
Remember, He sent a huge asteroid smashing into earth to kill off the dinos after He got bored with them.