American Thinker-
As concerns man-made climate change:
“The temperature of the Earth” is an ambiguous term that cannot mean anything. At any given time it is possible to measure the temperature of some very small part of the Earth, such as, perhaps, a shot glass of water. At that same moment, other temperatures of the Earth that could be measured will show a variation from the temperature of molten rock (1,300 to 2,200°F) to polar ice (32 to -76°F). Daily variation of the same place on Earth can be 50 to 60°F. Seasonal variation can be well over 100°F in high latitudes.
Conceptually, we could imagine, but not actually measure, every possible place and thing, at every possible time through all the seasons, and then average these data. To detect “global warming,” we would have to modify these data to include the specific heat of every thing measured, as well as the latent heat of all the things that change phase such as water, which appears as liquid, vapor, and ice.
Conceptually, yes; actually, no. Not possible.
Atmospheric science is presumably the scientific study of the atmosphere. (I am proudly not an atmospheric scientist.) If you use the scientific method to study something, you might presume to call yourself a scientist. Calling yourself a scientist does not give you the privilege of using bad data to reach fuzzy conclusions and then scare people with the latter. These folks are looking for about a 1°C change in “the temperature of the Earth” over the course of 100 years. more
It’s all b.s., designed to facilitate corruption and fascism.
We can never again allow ourselves to be governed by the likes of obama/clinton.
Buttigieg wanted to take a job measuring the Earth’s temperature until he found out you didn’t do it rectally.
Very, very few of those who call themselves “climate scientists” or “atmospheric scientists” are actual scientists. What they actually are are poor statisticians, usually untrained/uneducated statisticians. They don’t perform experiments; they conduct analyses. Those analyses are commonly poorly designed using the wrong statistical measurements to arrive inevitably at wrong conclusions.
And don’t get me started on modeling.
Less than 1% of the human population understands ‘heat’ let alone ‘temperature.’ And yes, I’m trained as an aeronautical engineer and am currently engaged in a giant project to forget all thermodynamics I ever learned: ‘Retirement.’
Uncle Al: how can we get you started on modeling?
Al Gore said that the Earths’ core was MILLIONSS of degrees. Gee, was he wrong?
@Wyatt – LOL!
This and the other elephant in the room, the fact that the “models” were never published. There never were any models.
still waiting for someone to tell me what the earths temp should be?
how do we know it isn’t supposed to be warmer?
hasn’t the temp been going up since the last ice age?
and if the temp starts falling aren’t we heading into an ice age?
the temp has never been static has it?
climate scientist my ass!
All based off computer models, of course. And as anybody who has had the pleasure of working on computer code knows, garbage in, garbage out.
If these models are so great, why won’t they let anybody see them?
@Cynic
MARCH 3, 2020 AT 3:00 PM
“Buttigieg wanted to take a job measuring the Earth’s temperature until he found out you didn’t do it rectally.”
Well, you can, but you have to shove the thermometer into San Francisco.
I\f you look at San Diego as the top, SanFran is about where the rectum is.
If it’s rectally, insert the thermometer in Memphis, TN.
Y’all best be listenin’ to Greta the “GOBLIN OF DOOM”. 🙂 She be knowin’ all about this tempertantrum shit!
OK, about computer modeling. Modeling can be a useful analytical tool, and if implemented with the understanding of its limitations, a statistical, analytical, simulation, queueing¹, or hybrid model can be productive and valuable.
But climate models are just models, they do not and cannot replicate the physical world. A large number of assumptions have to be specified by the modeler and that’s where the trouble starts. One of the key assumptions in GCM² is the CO2 sensitivity, or how much temperature goes up with a doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. All we really need to know is that this is an estimated number, and the estimates cover a wide enough range of values that at the lower end we need to be worrying about the impending ice age, and at the upper end we’re all gonna roast to death next week. The value given to the model, the sensitivity parameter, is chosen by the modeler for whatever reason he fancies, and it isn’t the only parameter like that, there are quite a few.
As for those model parameters, John von Neumann (the premier mathematician of the early 20th century) said,
Anybody who calls climate modeling “science” is either lying, propagandizing (not much different from lying), or is abysmally ignorant of what science is.
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1. Hisashi Kobayashi and IBM spell “queueing” with the 2nd “e” and if that’s good enough for them it’s good enough for me.
2. General Circulation Model. This is the most common type of climate model.
3. Attributed to von Neumann by Enrico Fermi, as quoted by Freeman Dyson.
@Wyatt, Insensitive Progressive Jerk:
I dunno, Wyatt. Try poking me with a stick and we’ll see what happens! (-:
I took a meteorology course in college. I learned quite a bit, like the difference between meteorology and all other hard sciences is hard science uses definitive terms. 2+2=4, first law of motion IS, etc. Meteorology on the other hand uses terms like ‘possibly’ ‘could’ ‘may’ ‘we think’. It’s horrendous that they can assure us of the temperature but can’t predict cloud formation with any accuracy. Horseshit. Wasted a semester on that.
Uncle Al
You work in OR?
John (I was told and an undergrad 60 years ago) was the father of American Operations Research. As well as helping invent Univac. I learned FORTRAN (Probably needs a 1) on a vacuum tube machine – IOBM 1401; actually had to “warm it up” before doing work VACUME TUBES needed to be hot to properly work.
I have said Im old
@an ol exjarhead – Nope, not OR. Rather, this sequence: computer operator, systems programmer, performance/capacity analyst, commercial software developer for systems management tools, contractor focusing on making blue sky ideas actually work, finally program manager at VISA in the Decision Science group working with PhD statisticians and mathematicians developing anti-fraud and marketing models using what’s now generally referred to as “Big Data”. Now retired, age 70.
An early job of mine involved operating a 360 with older admin programs run in a 1401 emulator. No vacuum tubes, but we did have a large box full of actual core memory lovingly threaded by little old gray haired ladies in Armonk NY. The oldest tech I can claim to have used was plug board logic that was part of a TESDATA hardware monitor setup. The reason for the plug board logic was that the hardware monitor had to be faster than the computer it was monitoring and there’s nothing faster than a few short pieces of copper wire connecting simple diodes.
Uncle Al
I retired from a CFO position over 10 years ago. But My SR year the “360” came out. It REVOLUTIONIZED computing. the 1401 I worked on had “Sequencial Access” memory. If the data was at the end of the Tape (another thing the 360 eliminated!) you had to wait maybe 150 sec to get it! 360 gave us RAM any and all data was retrieved in a sec!~
the 360 used disks – big As I recall(Im old) they were over 24 inches in diameter! tapes were out!
Again – I managed DP; did not actually do the work; so my knowledge may be sub optimal.
Oh, yeah! Huge disk drives; floor models. It’s funny, but I remember the 3330 specs: 13,030 bytes/track, 19 tracks/cylinder, 404 cylinders/disk pack for just about 100 MB per removable pack. There were a couple of earlier disk subsystems but I don’t remember the details.
My notebook computer, which I can pick up with two fingers, has 16 GB RAM, and 1 TB disk storage. My smart phone has more power and memory than the first several room-filling mainframes I worked with. It’s been very interesting seeing the tech explosion.
C’mon you guys, if it’s taken rectally (With a thermometer the size of which would make South Bend swoon) how you really gonna know which shithole to use?
You don’t need facts to spew bullshit.
All you need is bullshit (Globaloney Propaganda) and a spreader (Academia and the Media).
izlamo delenda est …