RedState: Having done a deep dive on the issue of expanding party registration in Pennsylvania, and its historical relationship to vote total for each party’s candidates — and coming to the conclusion that the polls in PA are describing a fantasy land where no actual voting takes place — I started wondering if there was a similar gap between polling and political reality as expressed by the relationship of the two numbers to each other. Florida is a state that — in my opinion — is really a GOP state that the media tries to argue is purple trending blue because of 2000, and because Obama won the state twice in 2008 and 2012.
One thing to keep in mind on that point, which I cover a bit more down below — only 2 Democrat politicians have won statewide in Florida for President, Governor, or Senator going back to 1998: Obama in 2008 and 20012, and Bill Nelson for Senate in 2000, 2006, and 2012.
In that same time period, George Bush, Jeb Bush, Mel Martinez, Charlie Crist, Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, and Ron DeSantis have won a combined 12 times for President, Senator, or Florida Governor.
This first set of numbers is the Democrat and GOP registered voters (top line) for each year indicated, and the votes received by the Democrat and GOP candidates for President in that same year (bottom line). The number in parentheses is the votes/voter registration percentage for each election. more here
I was reading earlier that Las Vegas odds makers say that Joe Biden is going to win, as he has negative odds and Trump has positive odds. I looked it up and that is the correct definition of positive and negative odds.
I did not verify that those were the actual odds that Vegas was giving or what those odds were based upon.
I do not see how Biden can barely fill a phone booth while Trump is having to turn people away from rallies for these polls and odds to be true.
I visited a friend yesterday morning, had a 10-mile drive down the 405 in L.A. County – and there was a big Trump Train going down the freeway. Haven’t seen anything like that for Sleepy Joe, and I am in the heart of Leftyland.
People aren’t voting for a candidate this time, they are voting for the side they’re on with the candidates themselves, as persons, actually irrelevant.
What we’ll see next month is which side is largest and has the most people agressively supporting it.
Before anyone starts looking at Vegas odds on this election they should get Wayne Allyn Root’s opinion first:
https://townhall.com/columnists/wayneallynroot/2020/10/11/fakepoll-alert-proof-biden-is-not-winning-n2577814
There are definitely people voting for Trump. Not sure that anyone apart from ‘Dr.’ Jill is voting for Sleepy Joe. And I expect his vote will be for potato.
Read more link not working for me.
The hubby talked to a guy with a Biden sign in his yard today. The guy claimed Trump was only in it for himself and that Biden is a moderate. There are ALOT of gullible people out there.