Something’s happening here: Trump and Ernst surge to substantial leads in final Des Moines Register polls – IOTW Report

Something’s happening here: Trump and Ernst surge to substantial leads in final Des Moines Register polls

Legal Insurrection-

If Biden is collapsing this late in Iowa, it’s reasonable to assume he has a late collapse elsewhere in the Midwest that might not yet be captured in polling.

The polls are going to drive people to madness, the people that is who obesess about polls. Just because so much of polling is garbage, however, does not mean all polling is garbage.

It might happen that Biden has a sweep, that can’t be ruled out, if he really, truly is ahead by 7.8% nationally (today’s RCP average). That’s double the Hillary national average advantage.

But there are just too many things that don’t align with that narrative, that suggest the national averages not only may be more wrong than in 2016, they may be particularly wrong in the swing states that matter and will decide who wins the electoral college.

I never thought of Iowa as a swing state, but it probably is. Obama won it by 9 points in 2008 and 5 points in 2012, Trump won it by almost 10 points in 2016.

Iowa also famously recently was put by the Cook Political Report into the toss-up column for both the presidential and Senate races, suggesting Trump was going down hard if he was barely hanging on in a state he won easily in 2016. Man, if Trump is running 10 points behind 2016 and Joni Ernst is in serious trouble, then maybe those national averages are right. Depressing.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE.

18 Comments on Something’s happening here: Trump and Ernst surge to substantial leads in final Des Moines Register polls

  1. My sister and I had a wonderful vacation in Arizona and New Mexico in mid-February of this year (before all the nonsense started).
    I inherited the art of talking and listening to people from our mother. At our lovely hotel in Phoenix, talked with many people from Nebraska, the Dakotas, Ohio and Iowa who regularly came to Phoenix to escape winter. Everybody was very enthusiastic about President Trump, especially the people from Ohio and Iowa. I realize this was only a very small sample, but…

    14
  2. I believe Trump will win the election and part of the reason is the fake polling numbers put out by the fake media. There used to be a saying, every body loves the under dog. I believe it’s true that if you see the guy who is down, he’s been treated unfairly, he’s doing a good job it gives you empathy for him and you will be more likely to throw him a bone by voting for him. If this is true it can help explain how Trump beat Hillary against all odds.

    7
  3. Joe Biden said, in one of his rare “rallies”: “Hey, look me over! If you don’t like what you see, vote for the other guy!”

    In Heaven, between praising and worshipping God, I do hope God takes a break to do some uninterrupted stand-up featuring his “best of”. You know, comediens have God-given talents, too. That means, of course, that God invented comedy.

    8
  4. I am shocked that all of the polls are suddenly jumping towards President Trump. It couldn’t possibly be because they have been skewing the numbers but now need to show the real results so they don’t look like idiots on Tuesday, could it? Nah, tin-foil hat.

    11
  5. Trump will probably win and the leftist will riot. Meanwhile, the Republicans will stand by and once again do nothing to curtail the violence because they have no spine.

    9
  6. Butler County, PA had 57,000 people at it last night.
    I believe crowds more than I believe polls.
    The pollsters are experts at asking the right people to get the answers they want and they ask questions is such a way it is impossible to give the answer you want.

    Hoping Trump wins in such a landslide there is no way for the commies to cheat.

    9
  7. It’s almost like the last six months of polling are 💯% Horse Shit. Now the fake polling shows Trump ‘rapidly closing the gap’, so down the road, the poll right before the election is at least somewhat close to reality.

    I’m not big on predictions, but wouldn’t be surprised if Trump pulls off an astonishing landslide. The man has earned it, for sure.

    Please Vote!

    👍🇺🇸

  8. Last night on Fox, Hemmer was flapping his gums while showing off what an idiot savant he is with his electronic map, and talking like this was 2016 where we had no idea where Trump was strong or not (other than the traditional blue states like CA, NY, IL, etc.) and that Trump had to win those states that he already won in ’16 as a “rookie”.
    Bullshit! To follow that line of thought then the Biteme map that Hemmer worked from with the huge electoral college lead it showed means that all those States were already in the bag for Joey even if Trump carried them in ’16.
    Fasten your seat belts, but it’s not as close as the punditry suggests–and get ready for another 4 years.

Comments are closed.