St. Louis Fed Quietly Finds US Is Now In A Recession – IOTW Report

St. Louis Fed Quietly Finds US Is Now In A Recession

ZeroHedge: In recent weeks, we have seen a burst of unexpected truthiness out of various regional Fed banks, a sharp contrast to the constant barrage of prevarication out of the Federal Reserve.

First, it was the Philadelphia Fed which effectively revised what was according to the BLS a gain of 1.1 million jobs to just 10,500 jobs, meaning that the Fed was looking at erroneously overstated, arguably politicized data, as it unleashed its burst of 75bps rate hikes in June… which happened just as June jobs number turned negative.

Then, a few days later, the Cleveland Fed suggested that the Fed’s entire inflation view is wrong, relying on core CPI (and PCE) data that is woefully, even dangerously, delayed – in some cases lagging market data by up to 12 months, and suggesting that rent inflation – a core component of shelter and OER inflation which is arguably the most important component of “sticky” US service inflation – is actually far lower if measured correctly. Specifically, instead of looking at the “all-tenant repeat rent index” (which looks at a broader, but much more smoothed population sample), the Cleveland Fed argues that what is key is the “New-Tenant Repeat Rent” index, which tracks market indexes such as Zillow and Apartment List far more closely, and thus represents reality much more accurately at key inflection points. MORE

9 Comments on St. Louis Fed Quietly Finds US Is Now In A Recession

  1. I’m coming around to the idea that the govt, ALL govt, should be banned from having computers. If they can’t do the analyses and calculations they want with a desk calculator, and if the data can’t be recorded on paper and stored in file cabinets, then they should do without.

    And no farming it out to contractors!

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