The IOTW Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread – IOTW Report

The IOTW Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread

Monday, 1 February 2016, 15:38 Aurelius Uncategorized 73

With the first caucus/primary finally happening tonight, I’d love to hear everyone’s prediction on what’s going to happen. I’ll be making one at the end of this article, after some analysis on my end.
Cruz Trump
Any prediction that I make is not an endorsement, but rather an educated guess based on the funky Iowa caucuses.

The first thing I want to say is that if Iowa was a primary, I think that Mr. Trump would win. But it’s not; it’s a caucus, which means that each candidate’s supporters will be able to make the case to each other before votes are cast at each caucus site. I think that will play a large role in tonight’s results and I believe it will work against Mr. Trump.

Establishment Republicans will be looking to stop Mr. Trump at these caucuses, in my opinion. That could result in two things: caucus-goers will coalesce around Cruz or they will coalesce around Rubio. I think both will happen.

With most of the candidates polling at 4% or less, I think a good number of these caucus-goers will be convinced to join with another candidate. Fiorina, Christie, Kasich, and Bush are probably going to do worse than the 2-4% that they’ve been polling at. Individually, that’s not much, but combined, that’s a solid 10% of the vote that could be up for grabs. Those four are “establishment friendly,” meaning I think they’ll either join Cruz or Rubio, most likely Rubio.

Mr. Cruz will be damaged by his insulting mailers, but I think he will be saved by his ground game. According to reports, he has 12,000 volunteers in Iowa, dwarfing any other candidate. Mr. Trump is intelligent, but Mr. Cruz is a seasoned campaigner, and I think that will work to his advantage to get the vote out.

Like Rick Santorum in 2012, Marco Rubio is surging at the right time, while still behind in the polls. While I don’t think that he’ll win, I have a feeling that he’ll have a stronger-than-expected result.

Mr. Trump has had momentum for, it seems, forever. For Trump supporters, the big question is if they’ll turn out. I think most of them will, but a few will not, and that might be the thing that tips the scale toward Mr. Cruz. Would I be surprised if Mr. Trump won? Absolutely not, he’s done a marvelous job rising in the polls. But with all factors considered, I think he’s going to lose just barely.

My prediction:
Cruz– 28.4
Trump– 26.8
Rubio– 21.7
Carson– 7.2

What’s yours?

Oh, and for fun:

Hillary: 50.2%
Sanders: 49.6%
O’Malley: .2%

72 Comments on The IOTW Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread

  4. I swore I wasn’t going to posit this. I think if Trump wins, it’s going to be by a surprising number. I’m giving him +8, but it could go higher. Iowans are a tough read — they’re so used to putting on a game face, it’s probably bred into their genes by now. You know, Scandinavian humor and other myths.

  9. Interesting that you mention “…it’s a caucus, which means that each candidate’s supporters will be able to make the case to each other before votes are cast at each caucus site.”

    …because what surprised me is that Republicans** have a “SECRET/PRIVATE” vote after the rah rah speeches…unlike Dems, who have what I consider a “classic” caucus where people openly move from corner to corner in a room to “vote”.

    So, in that sense, the Republican “caucus” is (THANKFULLY) not so different from a “normal” (ha!) State.

    It’s either going to be CLOSE (+/- 4%)

    Trump – 28%
    Cruz – 24%
    Rubio – 20%
    Carson – 10%
    Flotsam and Jetsam – 18%

    OR A BLOWOUT FOR TRUMP (+/- 8%)

    Trump – 30%
    Cruz – 20%
    Rubio – 20%
    Carson – 10%
    Flotsam and Jetsam – 20%

    “Your results may vary due to alcohol and popcorn consumption.”

    ** Does anyone know if Iowa GOP – AFTER their “private” vote – requires a second round if a winner is not clear? That’s how it USED to work with “open” move-to-another-corner caucuses….

  15. Have no prediction for GOP, however if weather becomes a factor I believe Sanders will win. His supporters will drive through a blizzard for him but, ironically, won’t drive on a sunny day to get a freakin’ job

  17. I want to remain optimistic for Cruz, but I worry that Trumpmania will boost turnout to the point that he overtakes the evangelical vote that Cruz holds the advantage in. So if I am predicting, rather than wishing, I have to say Trump beats Cruz by a few percentage points. Rubio, despite a late surge, stays in third. Carson, a distant fourth. And despite previous wins in Iowa, voters realize that Huckabee and Santorum are yesterday’s news, so they are down there with the 5%- and-below crowd. In fact, now that I look at the Czar’s predictions, the first scenario looks like what I see.

  20. Weather IS a STRONG factor there.
    Being retired “in the sun”, I don’t think about that anymore, but you’re 1,000% right!

    Anyone know weather forecasts tonight in Iowa?

  21. Cruz 28%
    Trump 22%
    Rubio 21%
    Carson 16%
    Less than 5% for each of the rest

    Clinton 39%
    Sanders 40%

    After Iowa it will be just Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, and maybe Jeb as the Republican establishment tries to consolidate it’s meager support behind him finally removing all the dark horses that were supposed to split conservative votes enough for him to win.

  24. as of 2;15 MST, Weather (all panic all the time) Channel was freaking out over another typical snowstorm. Argh, those people down south repeatedly beat that panic button like a teenager with porn.

    Trump by 3-5 %
    Hillary by whatever
    There is no 2nd place, only first losers.

  26. p.s. In the bigger scheme of things, it won’t matter, as Trump will “win” at least 40 of the States and (hopefully) enough delegates to avoid a “brokered” (READ: GOP Establishment gives it to !Jeb! or forces Rubio as VP on Trump) Convention.

  27. @ Czar, I spent my first 35 years of life suffering through e.S.D. weather, and no one is more capable of getting anywhere in shitty weather than Iowans. Except for the hapless souls still surviving in N. MN. They will get to the caucus, and when they do, I think Trump will be the winner. Probably by more than 3-5%, IMHO.

  34. doesn’t matter; the RNC will win……
    If you are a Trump or Cruz supporter you need for your candidate to win & win big ….. most of ‘other’ votes go to the ‘establishment’ candidate of choice at the convention. (either Jeb! or Rubio)
    That’s why all caucuses/primaries before March 1 are ‘binding’ for each delegate. Meaning if you are a delegate you must ‘pledge’ for the candidate that you are assigned, based on % of vote. Say if Jeb! gets 2%, 2% of the delegates are pledged to him.
    At the convention, if Trump or Cruz does not have a majority, the other candidates can ‘pledge’ their delegates to Jeb! or Rubio & win for the ‘establishment’.
    This is why Kasich is still in, to get enough Ohio votes for Jeb!Lindsey Gramnesty fucked up in SC, so did Walker in Wisconsin. Everything’s gonna hinge on Super Tuesday, March 1. (many of these states are ‘winner take all’)
    Iowa is a secret ballot for the repubs, not like the demonRATs. w/ the dems your neighbor/Homeowner Association bully, local zoning inspector can ‘persuade’ you to vote his or her candidate
    My guess …….Trump 30%, Cruz 22%, Rubio 11.5%

  38. 100% Cavaliers,0% Pacers, 7:00PM EST

    Cruz 28
    Rubio 24
    Trump 12
    Kasich 10
    Carson 6
    leftovers for the leftovers

    I don’t know what I’m talking about so there you go. I spent $2 on an instant Lotto and won $3. That’s my luck.

  42. I’ve read articles elsewhere positing how Cruz’s recent attacks on Ruffles is indication Cruz’s concerned he may come in third. As they suggest, why else would you attack the guy you’re supposedly leading?

    After reading some of the comments here, I wonder if perhaps it is a sign of Cruz’s confidence? Meaning, he knows he may best Trump, so may as well push Roofie to a distant third.

  46. Cosmic energy finally reaches earth and all caucus attendees become enlightened. Having immediately become self-leaders they unanimously decide not to elect a president and instead choose to ignore all edicts from the federal government.

  49. I’m not making any predictions. Instead I’ll go all low-brow, because that works in a lot of quarters. No numbers.

    I’ll take the guy with the weird hair or Count Chocula over Radar O’Rubio, the latin Ken (have you seen that guy’s ears?) over the tubby with an attitude, the genius with a scalpel (whose talents would shine in public service vis-à-vis a cabinet position), Krazy Eyes Kasich, the chick who has painted a virtual bulls-eye on the hildebeest and some guy named Bush.

    I’ll take the geezer over the grifter and the naked cowboy/rainman. As noted upthread, people will crawl over broken glass for the geezer (these people really need to get out more), just like the Paulians.

  55. @Charlie ~ it ain’t my scenario, it’s the one the RNC set up for Romney to win last time…. they’re playing the same dance card this time too.
    either Trump or Cruz run the table … I’m a happy camper

  57. Statistical tie between Trump and Cruz, resolving nothing. Media gin up New Hampshire as rumble in the jungle 2, but nobody gains any real upper hand until super Tuesday (1 March). Expecting Cruz ground game to shine here. But all that is just a guess.

    Here’s my long shot guess: Hillary withdraws due to (cough, cough) “health reasons” (either her’s or Bill’s) after getting bloodied in New Hampshire and as indictment nears. Biden/Warren jump in to save the Democratic Day, but Biden gets an infection from playing to long in the plastic ball pit at Chuck E Cheese. The ticket goes to Warren and a gender-fluid, half Hispanic half African-American undocumented immigrant with crushing student loans, but a Masters in interpretive dance.

  61. Thank you for this very depressing post. It was the perfect cap to a really bad day, to wit:

    1) Got to train station and realized left wallet at home w/ no time to retrieve. No means to acquire Diet Coke (Elixir of Life), New York Post (New York conservative’s bankie), or lunch.
    2) Stuck key in office door, turned it, and it broke. 60 minutes to get handyman to open door for me.
    3) Metro-North Harlem line service suspended at all Bronx stations owing to afternoon fataility (suspected suicide) at Botanical Garden station. Alternative commuting scenario: two buses and Metro-North Hudson line to downtown Yonkers. Time: 2 hours 15 minutes vs. normal 1 hour.

  63. Predictions:

    1) As for winners, point spreads, etc., I’m not touching that with John Holmes’ schlong.

    2) Damn thing will go until the wee hours of the morning. At 9:00 a.m. Central Time tomorrow, Governor Branstad will sign an executive order declaring the day “Iowa Late to Work Day.”

    3) Hillary will get blotto and try to seduce Donald Trump into her hotel room. Trump will make a concerted display of being disgusted. Melania Trump will scatch Hillary’s face, drawing a bit of blood.

    Ah, fook it. I’m going to bed.

  66. Perhaps Mr. Trump will continue his redefinition of Political Correctness and stomp the heck out of Mr. Cruz. The Democratic contest isn’t even worth looking at. Cruz should be appointed to the Supreme Court and President Trump will be the man to put him there.

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