This graph’s trajectory bodes well for a Cruz versus Hillary match-up. Cruz has the momentum.
Trump’s path isn’t as steady, looking more like a volatile stock.
Also at Real Clear Politics. An aggregate of 5 polls- NBC/WSJ, Fox, CNN, Quinnipiac and PPP- shows Cruz with a slight edge over Hillary: 0.6 percentage points.
An aggregate of 4 polls – NBC/WSJ, Fox, Rasmussen and PPP – shows Trump losing to Hillary: -2.5 percentage points.
Trump versus Sanders is worse. He’s down by 5.3%. Although their lines are equally volatile, no one creating steady momentum. At this point anything could happen.
An aggregate of polls analyzed by Real Clear Politics shows that as of right now, Cruz does better against Sanders than Trump.
He’s only down by 3.3%.
Huffpoop has tracked 69 polls from 17 pollsters and has Hillary up on Cruz by 1.6%. That is statistically within the margin of error.
Huffpoop has tracked 72 polls from 18 pollsters and has Hillary up on Trump by 4.2%.
21 polls from 8 pollsters has Sanders up by 10.9% over Trump.
7 polls from 4 pollsters has Sanders up by 3.3% over Cruz.
If these polls are accurate, if not too early, it shows that Trump dominates the primary, but isn’t as strong in the general as Cruz.
Polls can change wildly once 2 opposing party candidates go toe to toe in the general, but, if these aggregations of lots of polls show that Cruz is doing better than Trump in the general election, even if it’s within the margin of error, the “Trump is better choice because he’s more winnable” argument isn’t a very strong one.
(BTW, I think Sanders will beat Hillary in the primary, but I don’t for a second think that Bernie Sanders could beat either Trump or Cruz in a general election. So, this entire post may be moot. I just don’t think you can make the argument that Cruz is a liability in the general compared to Trump. It doesn’t seem to be the case.)
Sanders winning. Yeah, riiiiiiiiight.
That tells me ALL I need to know about such polls.
Oops…hit “post” too soon!
Ya want MOMENTUM?
HERE’S your momentum, buddy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZ6XdwGt7Ls
We are the “Silent NO MORE Majority”
How in the world does Hillary have a slight bump in the most recent polling, given the latest news about her email scandal? Oh, yeah, the world is upside down. That also explains why it could be possible for Sanders to win.
Grammar Nazi, aisle 1!
Or is it grammer natzi, isle won?
So are all those polls with or without the votes Dims will steal, add, or resurrect?
See, I like that better.
Just give the alert, not what it is.
I will see it immediately.
Blogging under the covers at 5 am is not the most responsible way to be doing it.
Grammar Nazi, step aside. I believe a SPELLING Nazi fares better in this situation…
?
Meh…agenda driven polls designed to scare Trump supporters into thinking cruz is the only one who can beat the shrew. Trump’s gonna schlong her bigtime and we’ll see just how cooked those polls really are.
It comes down to who you ask and how you ask it. I don’t trust any poll this far out.
I’ll give Trump the benefit of the doubt by the size of his rallies.
When Hilliary attracts those size of crowds, I might worry. Six people at an airport, or a couple hundred in a small venue, with her being the CUNT she is, I think either candidate would win. The fact is she is not that well liked.
It does make a twisted logic sort of sense! Cruz can’t beat Trump but he can beat Hillary. Hillary can’t beat Bernie but she can beat Trump! I think I shall wait for the credits to roll!
“It’s who counts the votes,” someone once said.
There is no more “if it ain’t close they can’t cheat.” The statists can, have, and will steal again, and between the executive precedents set by Aboma, a submissive bent-over GOP and a geriatric Supreme Court, the left knows it’s now Winner Takes All time.
You said trajectory . . .
Sorry to be an ass. Just trying to maintain my self-appointed position of comedy relief for the site … uhh … cite … uhh … sight …
Let’s look back eight years:
2008 – Hitlery is clobbered by the “Affirmative Action Candidate” in the primaries. McLame gets a huge jump in the polls after he picks Palin for his running mate, only to loose it all due to his handlers pathetic decisions. Candidate “choom boy” then beats McStain by a small amount – most likely due to election fraud.
2012 – Romney, the worst candidate of the entire field of Republicans steals the nomination. He then accidently dominates obummer in their first debate, but then gives the others away. He still only looses the election to the “Affirmative Action President” by a small amount – most likey due to election fraud and many conservatives not voting.
Now, let’s look at 2016 –
Trump consistently fills stadiums, he is dominating the airwaves and social media. He is dancing around in the heads of the leftists and the DC establishment. Nothing they throw at him sticks. The public is paying attention.
Meanwhile, Hitlery has fans waiting for hours, and then ignores them. Sanders gets pushed off the stage by blm agitators who take over his rally?
Every one of the GOP establishment candidates who hit Trump immediately took a nosedive. With one “tweet” Trump slapped Hitlery down in full view of the public when she tried to use the “women” card, utterly destroying her only justification for being a candidate. Trump has said many times since that he hasn’t even started campaigning against the democraps.
Trump hasn’t starting spending any considerable money on his campaign yet.
And Trump is going to lose to Hitlery or Sanders? Only if he is an establishment plant and takes a dive, and after what I saw this week from NRO and other establishment lapdogs, I seriously doubt this is the case.
Full disclosure – I am still undecided between Trump and Cruz.
You got it! And never forget:
Trump’s a Nazi, an Establishment Republican and not conservative enough…all at the same time!
Don’t laugh at Sanders. He is the embodiment of the Occupy movement, and he’s got the left wrapped around his finger. Here in S. California all the political bumper stickers so far are Bernie. All the leftists and even Ron Paul followers are talking Sanders on Facebook, creating memes that are trying to give him some punk rock street cred. I think he will win over Hillary.
Let’s try this on for size also. http://laurenstephens.com/
“i can see 2016 from my house…and i don’t like what i’m seeing
An Open Letter To Mark Levin”
I’d love to be proven wrong by these polls in my opinion that Cruz has a zero chance of winning the general. But I don’t think I’m wrong.
Trump will get a lot of cross over vote simply because he’s a celebrity.
My most realistic hope is that he keeps the promises he’s making simply because he will want to remain popular. I don’r really have any illusions about him being an ideologue. Bill Clinton won twice and has never actually had an idea, let along an ideology.
Short term inspection of charts is always pointless. What matters is the long term trend line. Indeed, that’s the whole point of charts – to show trends that would otherwise be missed by just looking at the data. The absolute numbers are not all that revealing. What you see in these charts is both Cruz and Trump trending up and Hill trending down. Regardless of who you want to win it’s clear their job is getting easier all the time.
I am sorry, I got hung up on “looses”. Did you mean “loses”? J/k. Personally, I am enjoying this rollercoaster ride. I am enjoying seeing the engagement and people being interested in what’s going on. Matter of fact, while driving here in So Cal yesterday, I saw a trump sticker on a minivan driven by a Hispanic looking woman.
Aren’t polls wonderful? They take all the suspense and mystery out of it and we don’t even have to get up off the couch and go vote since we already know who the winner is! Hey Ma make me a ham samish and bring me a beer I have some more free time now!
Okay, Cruz, with his 17%, will beat Hillary with her 30% after she loses to Bernie with his 25%. Kasich is surging to 7% and Yebby is holding fast at a strong 4.5 % and Trump is an also ran with a puny 40.5!
Heck I am still trying to find out who is on first. No he is on second or is it third?
I swear I fixed that before posting….
You can not go by a general poll – you have to go state by state. Trump will landslide state by state.
Everything is theory until actual people cast actual votes. If Cruz wins Iowa there ballgame has then actually started. If Cruz comes in second in Iowa but win one of the next primaries after that he is still in the race but many of the faux ‘Pubbies will have to drop out and their numbers then start going to someone else. The the race is really on.