Trump Wins Michigan and Mississippi Primaries

Confirmed

Michigan:

Trump is being declared the winner in Michigan with 38% of the vote

As of this writing, Kasich received more votes than Cruz. 26%-23%

Rubio received less than 10% of the vote.

Mississippi:

Trump is being declared the winner in Mississippi with 49% of the vote.

Cruz received 35%.

Kasich 8%

Rubio received, as of this writing, less than 5% of the vote.

In both states, polling had almost the exact numbers for Trump. Rubio was expected to be tied with Cruz. That hasn’t happened so far. Kasich is at the 8% he was expected to get.

The interpretation is that Rubio voters in Mississippi are going to Cruz.

The same can be said of the Rubio voters in Michigan. Rubio has underperformed in the exact amount that Cruz has over-performed.

It doesn’t look like Trump is gaining from Rubio defectors, so far. It’s too early to say with certainty that Trump has plateaued in a 2 man race with Cruz. It would be close, though.

Trump is expected to win Idaho, which closes later this evening. We’ll see if those numbers follow this early Rubio to Cruz trend.

Hawaii is also conducting a primary.

I’ll make a call later to the one republican there and see who he’s voting for so we can call it early.

(Hawaii is so blue, there is no polling data pre-primary. Turnout may be in the dozens!)