Federalist
Determining the size of a market correction is extremely difficult, but if the 2008 crash is an indicator of what’s in store for us today, then if the current real estate bubble pops soon, as all bubbles inevitably do, it could end up being the largest real estate crash in history.
The bubble that developed from 2002 to 2007 peaked at around a 47 percent price increase, before plummeting by 20 percent from 2007 to the first quarter of 2009. If we see a similar pattern emerge for the bubble that has been developing since roughly 2012, then we could see housing prices drop by 30 to 40 percent over a two-year period.
Whatever the final numbers end up being, the evidence is clear: based on data reported over the past six decades, America appears to be on the verge of an epic real estate crash. More
If you’re thinking of abandoning a blue state for a red state, now’s the time to unload your home, before it’s too late. -Dr. Tar
I will never be able to retire. One thing after another
I do not claim to be a financial expert on these types of things….never will. A case could be made that we, as a whole, did not learn our lesson. I’d levy that could be part of it. But I feel, in my uneducated view, that the real problem/blame lies with tbose that gleefully allow this to happen. Historically, not everyone loses their asses in situations like this. Until those that monkey with the system are stripped of their assets and executef, I fear nothing will change. Sure, a death penalty may not be a deterrent, but it will make certain that those motherfuckers currently involved in these shenanigans will never do it again. But what do I know, I’m just a simple man.
To take your blue state to red state move a step further, moving to a small town can free you of worrying about a mortgage at all.
The real estate bubble, in simplest terms, is a debt bubble.
Scary but probably very accurate based on the craziness in my neck of the woods–the East End of Long Island.
The difference is this time those buying the homes are hedge funds like BlackRock. They buy whole subdivisions and then rent them out. Pricing out the middle class/typical home buyer whose income is losing value due to inflation.
Depends on the state you’re in. Don’t see it happening in Texas, Georgia and a few others. In fact, prices in GA should continue to rise.
Idaho’s are rising due to people flooding in from WA, OR and CA… Meta is moving a huge server system just outside of Boise. ID will be Bluer than wet rock pretty soon.
IMHO housing needs to be over supplied before a crash, as in past crashes. The housing market JUST started over expanding for the first time since the 08/09 collapse. It’ll have to expand much more from here before there’s a collapse, probably at least another 3 to 5 years at current pace… But, hey, I don’t know anything.
Real estate will collapse up here.
Our rents and homes have been higher than Boston with half the avg income.
I’ll be keeping my eyes open for deals and auctions.
My house is paid for – even it it dropped 75%, I’d still come out ahead. I’ve survived every RE bubble since 1969 when I bought my first house. Ever since that time I listened to men like Howard Ruff from the Ruff Times and Bob Brinker from MoneyTalk. I heeded their advice – stayed out of debt, paid the house off and didn’t invest in tulip bulbs. I’ve been a prepper all my life.
@ecp: I agree. There isn’t a week that goes by where there isn’t a flyer in my PO Box from a RE investor to buy my house. What’s going for us homeowners here, we have lots of people for the past 4 years that have been burned out. They’re here looking for a house and overbidding on them. Friend sold and went to TN – bidding war erupted, they had their house sold within 24 hours and got $20,000 over asking price. If mrtg interest rates rise, then I can see some equity taken off the table, but the market then levels out.
Of course it’s good to live in a former blue state that recently flipped red.
And to live in a rural area.
I ain’t moving so it won’t affect me.
After the move here, an excruciating experience, told wife next move, one box and I’m in it.
Goldenfoxx, you are correct. The answer is to be debt free…..
I wonder if I should sell one of mine …
Yeah, Bernie, me too … but that’d only leave me with 4 …
You pathetic peons only need a refrigerator crate, anyhow!
Or a tarpaper shack …
Interesting piece popped up on CTH today. Explains how housing permits are up but housing starts are down.
It all has to do with inflation and the big investment outfits trying to hedge themselves using real estate, without taking the same risk they took in the 2008 crash. Worth a read.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/02/17/u-s-housing-starts-drop-unexpectedly-but-future-permit-applications-remain-strong/#more-227789
The sooner the collapse the better….
First house is a tool, buy it if you can afford it price bedamned. Second house and subsequent are investments and the price then matters.
Supply and demand. As long as there are 50 million Californians trying to get out, there will be a demand.
I have 3 years left then I can punch out, my house I signed for in 2016 has almost doubled according to Zillow, but it is all illusionary until I put it on the market, if I get a big enough return I’m bailing to a state that doesn’t tax pensions, save me that income at least. If it pops I’m still good, I only sign fixed rate mortgages, so I know what my payments are.
Regardless of price fluctuations or investment value, sooner or later you are going to think of a house as simply a place to live.
Welllll Duhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!
Zillow bought (overpaid), everything they could get their hands on, now they’re under water leaving a lot of people in the cold, so they rent.
Did I mention it’s hard to find a house to rent now even so?
The rent is to dam high.
if we were on the gold standard and not fiat money, we wouldnt have a problem with it.
40% of money in circulation was added in the last 18 months. We aint getting out of this easily.
I’m still thinking a house is better than money in the bank. Even if it sits there empty
The failing supply chain will crap the construction industry first. That will temporarily keep existing house prices high – until – and if – the whole economy takes a dump (which is possible).