“Harvey Is What Climate Change Looks Like: It’s time to open our eyes and prepare for the world that’s coming.” That August 28 Politico article by Slate weatherman Eric Holthaus was one of many trying too hard to blame the hurricane and/or flood on climate change.
Such stories are typically infused with smug arrogance. Their authors claim to be wise and well-informed, and anyone who dares to question their “settled science” must need to have their eyes pried open and their mouths shut.
There will doubtless be similar “retroactive forecasting” tales about Irma, so recent story-telling about Harvey may provide a precautionary warning for the unwary.
I am an economist, not a climatologist.* But blaming Harvey on climate change apparently demands much lower standards of logic and evidence than economists would dare describe as serious arguments.
Atlantic’s climate journalist said,
“Harvey is unprecedented—just the kind of weird weather that scientists expect to see more of as the planet warms.”
But Harvey’s maximum rainfall of 51.88 inches barely exceeded that from Tropical Storm Amelia in 1978 (48”) and Hurricane Easy in 1950 (45”). And what about Tropical Storm Claudette in 1979, which put down 42 inches in 24 hours near Houston (Harvey took three days to do that)? In such cases, attributing today’s extreme weather to “climate change” regardless of what happens (maybe droughts, maybe floods) is what the philosopher Karl Popper called “pseudoscience.”
If some theory explains everything, it can’t be tested and it is therefore not science. (Popper’s favorite examples of pseudoscience were communism and psychoanalysis.)
Seemingly plausible efforts to connect Harvey to climate change are precariously based on another unusual event in 2015–16, not long-term climate trends. In the Atlantic, Robinson Meyer wrote that
“Harvey benefitted from unusually toasty waters in the Gulf of Mexico. As the storm roared toward Houston last week, sea-surface waters near Texas rose to between 2.7 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit above average.”
Meyer’s source is a single unsourced sentence from “Climate Signals beta” from the Rockefeller Foundation’s “Climate Nexus” project run by Hunter Cutting (“a veteran political director who develops communications strategy”). Perhaps it would be wiser to consult the National Hurricane Center about Gulf temperatures, which shows they are averaging about one degree (F) above the baseline.
These idiots follow the trend popular with the crackpot scientists, then assemble a collection of disjointed facts to bolster their argument. Any neutral observer can see it’s nothing more than a political movement.
A little bio on Eric Holthous from Wikipedia (who knows what the truth is, anymore?!).
Eric Holthaus (born 1981)[1] is a meteorologist who works for Slate, and former columnist for the Wall Street Journal who has frequently written about the impacts of global climate change.[2][3][4]
Holthaus grew up in Kansas. His writing during Hurricane Sandy resulted in a substantial following. During his career, he has advised numerous groups and individuals on coping with changing weather, including Indian military officials and Ethiopian subsistence farmers.
He has traveled to Ethiopia in many occasions, where he does work for a climate project. On September 27, 2013, feeling that his extensive air travel was contributing to the problem, Holthaus vowed never to fly again.[5]
His commitment to not flying again lasted for a year.
Why aren’t there any practical Chicken Littles when it comes to things that can be controlled? How about Murder-Rate-In-Chicago alarmists who worry about gangs? Or, Falling-Off-Ladders people hyperventilating about the number of people who die every year hanging Christmas lights and changing their storm screens? Maybe an activist could take up the crusade to end Murder-In-The-Womb.
Why? Because it’s a lot less risky writing/talking/championing something that you don’t actually have to do anything about or be personally involved with. Just ask Algore about carbon footprints.
It really is caused by global warming because I say it is. Your Welcome,Billy
Has anyone else wondered at the locations of these storms? Texas (Ted Cruz), Florida (Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush). I wonder what’s going to happen in Ohio.
😉
Klimate Krishna is the one true religion. It is proven by Klimate Scientology.
500,000 years ago there was probably a hurricane that was ten times more powerful than Irma.
Unfortunately, there were no humans around to speculate on what caused it.
🙂
“If some theory explains everything, it can’t be tested and it is therefore not science.” The same goes for organic evolution. It utilizes some scientific facts but it is not science.
Vietvet – that’s because the huge storm wiped out all human life, including the *news* reporters who were doing live shots outside in the wind and rain.
@Burner: Stop it – you’re getting my hopes up.
🙂
So the early predictions on Irma universally showed an eastern tract and the only thing the libs had to celebrate is the destruction of Mar A Lago on its projected path. Fitting they thought since Trump is the evil one and destiny and gaea, the gods of liberals, were going to punish the Trumpster.
But as is now noted by the movement of Uncle Al to BFH the tract is going up the West Coast peninsula. Sparing DJT’s business (and BFH) from the brunt of the storm.
God is at work in all things and He could have run the eye of the storm right over the top of Mar A Lago so I chalk this up to another affirmation of God’s hand in our Presidents life. God Bless America and God Bless DJT
Libs mock prayer, DJT calls for a day of prayer and his business receives a degree of protection. Coincidence? I think not, no such thing.
Did that stop activists from pressuring the American Psychiatric Association? No.
So nature decides advancement of traits, winners and losers in evolution, but when it comes to hurricanes, nature has nothing to do with it.
I see.
CO2 in prehistoric times was many many times what it is now because all those dinosaurs were driving big SUVs and burning high-sulfur coal in their power plants. They caused so much global warming they went extinct.
And that’s the truth. pbbbbblt
None of these AGW cultists ever say what the correct climate should to be, nor how transferring all that money and political power to them will fix the ‘problem’. They make it sound like there’s a “climate thermostat” and if you only give them enough money and power they can somehow convince the climate elves to turn it back down. Greedy elves.
Follow the money…..
The climate on Earth has been changing since the Big Bang…..
Difference is that scientists, charlatans, and grifters can now get big money for supporting the “manmade climate change” industry.