Oregon Live-
Pollsters famously got the 2016 presidential election wrong. HuffPost, for example, listed Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning at 99 percent right up until the race was called for Donald Trump.
Data experts have tried to learn from that epic fail — and one has proven especially successful, so far. Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)
(ummmmmm, everyone predicted that the GOP would lose the senate. -bfh)
Now Bitecofer says *that same model, which she says “departs significantly” from well-known data site FiveThirtyEight’s approach, makes clear that Donald Trump will not win reelection next year.
What makes Bitecofer’s model different? “The central theoretical tenet serving as the basis for my predictions,” she says, “is that ‘this ain’t your granddaddy’s electorate’ anymore. That is to say, contemporary elections are largely driven by negative partisanship.” She approaches the data with that in mind.
And a full sixteen months before the 2020 election, she has chosen the winner — she just doesn’t know who it’s going to be.
Bitecofer’s model has concluded that it matters not who the Democratic presidential nominee is…
The political scientist and data analyst has concluded that the Midwest, where Trump did unexpectedly well in 2016 with razor-thin victories in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, is the “only viable path for Trump to win the White House” four years later — and that it’s just not going to happen again.
“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
!snip!
*Uhh, how does that same model used to predict the midterms correlate in any way, shape or form with the Trump theories she is using to make her 2020 prediction?
Answer: It doesn’t.
She’s pulled this prediction out of her fat ass.
h/ jd hasty
She’s still fat after the pullin’.
She’s figuring in the 30 million illegals voting, vote harvesting and election fraud on a massive scale.
Any prediction model cannot account for the events that will happen between now and the election and therefore is not worth a damn at this point so far from Election Day.
…is she predicting the Civil War, too?
…because that’s how you GET a Civil War…
Looks like she ate everybody that disagreed with her poll.
Whatsername?
Bitecovfefe?
She also predicts that by 2020 she be able to see her feet again….
$5 says she tells other people that picture is from when she was skinny.
Whoa. Somebody’s girlfriend is definitely hungry. Must have worked up an appetite cooking the polls.
I bet if you lifted her couch cushion you’d find a pussy hat and two dead cats.
I can picture Ham-Head Rove and his white board salivating all over this on Fox for the rest of the week.
What are the poll results on how many men are attracted to her FUPA?
Thirdtwin
JULY 18, 2019 AT 2:07 PM
“…I bet if you lifted her couch cushion you’d find a pussy hat and two dead cats.”
…now, now, @Thirdtwin, be nice.
Maybe it’s only ONE dead cat, because it ATE the FIRST one before it also died…
She’s not fat. She’s gravitationally challenged.
I predict another donut is in her near future.
Wait a minute!
Who replaced the Electorate, and why are they terrified? 🤔
Every idiot wants to plant a prediction long shot.
I predict omar will shoot cortez.
Biteasser can KISS mine.
I never heard of her before so I don’t know the answer to this question, but is there any documentation from before the 2018 election that she actually predicted the results, or is it a matter of her prediction was made public after the election to show how smart she was.
Years ago I saw a show that explored mysteries that was hosted by Leonard Nimoy. This particular show was about Nostradamus. They showed the passage where Nostradamus, by way of an anagram, supposedly predicted Hitler. They pointed out that the sentence was also an anagram for something like “Uncle Harry wears dirty underwear” or some-such. I thought it was hilarious, but it did show how you can say almost anything after the fact. I don’t think this would be the first time we didn’t hear of someone’s brilliant prediction until AFTER the event that he or she brilliantly predicted.
Today’s lesson illustrates how staying in denial and not accepting reality can lead to complications involving psychotic delusions and over-eating.
If you have been diagnosed with TDS, please seek the nearest actual conservative and get a reality check immediately.
You’ll experience relief as soon as you are fully aligned with reality.
Polls = Fake News.
Oh she must be from Hillary’s woods. I guess Hilda got polled.
She’s a pollster alright…just not a political pollster.
Burger King, Wendy’s, McDonald’s, Chipotle, KFC, Arby’s…..
Hello I’m taking a survey….mind if I take just a few of your fries? and I need just a couple of those wings, xtra sauce please, just to be sure I’m gathering a broad sample.
Hey she’s got a 99.9 to .1 chance of being right….so I’m saying, she’s got a chance. (No not really!)
old_oaks- LOL!!!