If Trump loses Indiana it is a brokered convention.
Politico has the match in a dead heat between Cruz and Trump.
No state in the coming weeks of the Republican presidential contest is viewed by the campaigns as more consequential than Indiana — and none has been a bigger black hole for polling, where not a single public survey of the state’s electorate has been released.
But that doesn’t mean there haven’t been polls, especially with a heated Republican Senate primary in Indiana. Their findings just haven’t been revealed. Until now.
Three different groups, not affiliated with the presidential campaigns, that have surveyed the state recently provided results to POLITICO on condition that they be shared anonymously.
One survey, completed on April 12, hadTed Cruz and Donald Trump in a statistical tie: 32 percent to 32 percent, with John Kasich, governor of neighboring Ohio, a distant third, with 14 percent.
A second survey also had Trump and Cruz tied, but that was a change from three weeks earlier, when Cruz had led outside the margin of error.
A third survey, from last week, had Trump ahead of Cruz, outside the margin of error.
While private polls are to be treated with caution, the lack of public data in Indiana makes sharing the findings worthwhile, especially given the state’s coveted status.
The Club for Growth Action Fund announced a $1.5 million ad buy in the state on Thursday. “There is now no state more important than Indiana for electing Cruz and keeping Trump from reaching 1,237,” said Club president David McIntosh.
Indiana votes on May 3 and delivers 30 delegates to its statewide winner, plus three delegates to the winner of each of the state’s nine congressional districts.
It is likely to be the biggest battleground in coming weeks, given both the closeness of the race and the huge haul of delegates. Both Trump and Cruz, for instance, are making in-person appeals to Republican Gov. Mike Pence.
It’s Rand Paul now, not Trump
Politico never tells the truth. Worst case, Trump falls short by 68 votes at June 7 last primary. He then has 41 days before the convention to gather 68 of the 150 unbound delegates. Or he could cut a deal with some other candidate with delegates.
More fail by the desperate elite.
Trump has shown he’s a lot smarter than they are and able to hire even smarter insiders like Manafort.
Cruz is mathematically out of the race, Politico.
Rand Paul? See how that one flies with those of us that supported a candidate that yaknow, actually ran for the nomination.
Trump will be ahead by 4-600 delegates and close to 4 million votes by Cleveland. If he doesn’t outright win it, it’s obvious that he is, by far, the choice of R voters. It will be mayhem if they rob him of the nod.
While I’ll vote for the R and will not support a 3rd party run by Trump, millions won’t. You can mail this one directly to Hillary if he gets the pipe.
A “brokered” convention is nothing but a sham.
Messrs. Trump and Cruz need to quit the petty squabbling and unite for America’s sake.
Their egos be damned.
izlamo delenda est …
Let’s hope Indiana see’s Trump’s true liberal color’s and does the right thing.
What is the big deal with the decision being made at the convention?
That is how it happened with Reagan and others before.
Why is it that only Trump can’t handle such a thing, why isn’t he up to it?
How about instead of daily carping and wailing, getting him up to it?
I know it would require work, and it is more fun when things are done for you by others, but can’t you make an exception in this case?
I wouldn’t read politico if it was the only website.
JohnS – Why do you argue for disenfranchising voters? Aren’t you in the wrong country if you believe that it’s not the voters who count but those who count the votes?
JohnS – by the way, in 1976 Ford led in delegates AND popular vote and won the nomination. He didn’t have the GOP spending $100 million on negative ads against him.
I’m beginning to think JohnS is actually a Hillary operative.
Still time for a few more Indiana factories to announce their closure and shipment of jobs to Mexico to push Trump over the top.
TO pageoturner and Gladys
OF COURSE JohnS is! As a GOPe mole, his role is *solely* to divide and conquer on the Right to ensure a victory for the GOPe’s inbred Democrat “relative,” Hillary. He’s repeatedly shown he is either too ignorant or too incompetent to argue/defend otherwise.
I do not trust politiHo, either.
Furthermore, while IN has 57 delegates, it *just so happens to be winky winky* the State with (nearly…at least of those remaining) the most secretive Primary “rules”…allowing for all sorts of GOPe shenanigans to “suddenly” happen.
Hence the build-up…just like Wisconsin.
I CALL BULL.
Hm. Of all the the predictions on delegate count, Fur chooses Politico’s? Curious.
(not really)
TO AA and others
Isn’t it *interesting* how this is coming out
just before Trump’s NEXT ROUND OF
CRUSHING VICTORIES
next Tuesday?!?
“Unexpectedly”!!!
😉
Trump is the presumptive nominee. Unite and beat Hillary!
Sounds like a broken record that won’t stop playing until June 8th.