Chances We’ll Find Another Earth – IOTW Report

Chances We’ll Find Another Earth

Earth may be a one and done deal for the universe.

image_3361e-Earth-Like-Exoplanets

A Swedish astrophysicist ran some numbers in a computer model and determined that of the 700 quintillion (that’s 700 x 10 to the power 18) planets estimated to exist, there is only one earth.

So, no green alien ladies then?

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Rats

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21 Comments on Chances We’ll Find Another Earth

  1. When it’s all said and done, we’ll find the universe teeming with life.

    The 3rd verse of the famous Rumsfeld ode goes like this, …but there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

  2. Yes, the universe is teeming with life.
    But most of it is goo
    The odds of us finding something remotely similar to us is almost zero. It’s not only where, but when. A million years in the past and how would we know they were here? A million from now and I won’t get to see it so who cares.
    Having said that, the odds of finding another Earth are about the 700 boozillion or whatever to one.
    When you take into account:
    Type II Yellow star
    And in the stable part of the star’s life
    Goldilocks zone of that star
    Extremely stable orbit around the star
    Relatively quiet inner system free of debris caused by Big fat asses like Jupiter and Saturn out a ways to deflect 30% of inbound objects
    One large, close, stable moon to provide tidal braking to slow the orbit down to a habitable
    A slightly tilted orbit to provide for seasonal climates
    A planet not tidally locked (like the moon is) so that one side of the planet does not face the sun all the time.
    On and on and on
    We have it nice here.
    We should start fixing the place up, and getting rid of ISIS so we can enjoy it more.

  3. Lazlo is not a literal interpreter of the Gospel, so for me; the wonder of our universe and all that is in it, only gives greater glory to our Creator.
    No offense meant to others who might believe differently.

  4. Discounting reflected light from the Earth, the Sun shines equally on all sides of the Moon.

    But I get you were using Earth-Moon as a proxy Sun-Planet.

    I agree with your take on the wonders of the Universe.

  5. Oh sure, when those HuffPo types want to spout anti-earth exceptionalism they are all over the statement “billions and billions of stars, WE can’t be the only ones” Now they say we are a unique snowflake in the universe. 🙂

  6. The point is moot in any event.
    There could be intelligent life on one, or millions of planets in the universe and we will never be able to interact with them. Physics is cruel that way.
    You would have to convert 2 pounds of matter directly to energy to merely accelerate 1 pound of matter to 1/10 the speed of light. It would take the energy near the output of our sun to get a very small spacecraft to nearby star systems in 3 lifetimes.

  7. You could create two microscopic black holes and with one out front to compress space thus you begin to fall into the gravity well in front, while using the one behind you to expand space
    There’s no ceiling unless you run into something.
    I think we’re the first, at least in this galaxy to get this far. Our circumstances are so rare to be..astronomical.
    If there will be any invading of any planets, I think we’ll be the ones doing it.

  8. So we all tend to give science credence, even when it is not warranted. I will show you many examples of unwarranted credence tonight. But here’s an example to begin. This is the famous Drake equation from the 1960s to estimate the number of advanced civilizations in the galaxy.

    N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL

    Where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet’s life during which the communicating civilizations live.

    The problem with this equation is that none of the terms can be known. As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from “billions and billions” to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. The mathematical appearance is deceptive. In scientific terms — by which I mean testable hypotheses — the Drake equation is really meaninglessness.

    Author Michael Crichton from his speech “The Case for Skepticism on Global Warming.”

    *************

    This is NOT science. This is pseudo-scientific babble. We simply don’t know and until we get the infamous, “Take me to your leader” message, we never will. It’s a time-waster designed to make the brain-dead researchers look like they’re doing something meaningful, rather than just spending tax money we don’t have and can no longer afford.

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