WaEx: The economy grew at by 2.9 percent in 2018, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday morning in its quarterly report on gross domestic product, tied for the strongest growth in 13 years.
The figure fell just shy of President Trump’s stated goal of yearly 3 percent growth.
Still, Thursday’s report showed GDP growing at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2018, better than analysts expected for the quarter that included the beginning of the partial government shutdown.
Most economists expect growth to slow in the quarters ahead. Federal Reserve officials, for instance, see GDP growth slowing to around 2.3 percent in 2019, and then slowing even further to 2.0 percent in 2020. The partial government shutdown, in particular, is likely to have lowered first-quarter growth though the Congressional Budget Office believes that the effect will fade in subsequent quarters, and not be reflected in annual growth for 2019.
Trump boosted output last year by increasing spending and cutting taxes. In the years ahead, however, growth is expected to slow as the U.S. population ages.
In one way of looking at the data, though, 2018 economic growth did beat Trump’s 3 percent goal. Comparing the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2017, the economy grew 3.1 percent. The 2.9 percent figure, in comparison, represents an average of the economy’s growth over the course of the year.
Thursday’s GDP data will be revised in the quarters ahead, and could ultimately be higher or lower. more here
Wait for the upward revision. Just as the BEA during the Obama era overestimated growth then quietly revised downwards, they have underestimated growth during Trump’s term.
“Most economists expect growth to slow in the quarters ahead. ”
Bull Shit. These people don’t understand the economic multiplier of Manufacturing. That magic wand is more kick ass the most realize. Trump’s economy got a 2.9 percent increase despite a partial Government shut down. Fing incredible. I’m listening to Larry Kudlow on Ingram right now saying, people don’t get it, this is s blue collar recovery. I can’t disagree.
The Fed is a big part of these numbers being what they are. Fed chairman Powell needs to take a permanent vacation. He screwed a hell of a lot of folks out of some serious cash. But numbers are still good despite his best efforts.
Watched Kudlow on Varney this morning. The real number is 3.1% — and possibly more than that. And the outlook for ’19 remains that or better than that.
In one way of looking at the data, though, 2018 economic growth did beat Trump’s 3 percent goal. Comparing the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2017, the economy grew 3.1 percent. The 2.9 percent figure, in comparison, represents an average of the economy’s growth over the course of the year.
So the economy’s year over year growth is 3.1%, the only one that matters. The rest is masturbating with numbers.
AA, I KNOW YOU KNOW IT. Explain the economic multiplier. I’m freaken beat, you’ll do it much better than I. Good night.
The US is bleeding $700 billion/year in trade deficits. Tariffs that keep dollars in the US will circulate 4-5 times in a year, the multiplier effect Brad mentioned. That’s GDP growth that has been given away to other countries for 40 years.
If the US had historic growth rates the last 40 years, instead of giving away economic growth to other countries, the US GDP would be about 2.5X where it is now. I.e. US trade deficits have depressed US economic growth by about 2%/year over 40 years.
Major Mal Function
Exactly. Economic Multipliers are basically the required vendor base, the trickle down to vendors, to ship finished goods. And nobody beats Manufacturing. Reagan got it, (I surfed that wave), and Trump gets it. DJT’s got a bitchen magic wand.
Major Mal Function, a great comment. Virtual high five.
@MMF. Thanks for the short tutorial.