The IOTW 2018 Mid-Term Liveblog Spectacular – IOTW Report

The IOTW 2018 Mid-Term Liveblog Spectacular

Wednesday, 7 November 2018, 3:26 Aurelius Uncategorized 173

Last Update: 12:55: The GOP made several major gains in the Senate tonight and will most likely have a majority of 54 or 55 seats. The Democrats took the House and will likely have a majority somewhere in the mid-220s. Thanks for all the comments tonight everyone!

Update: 12:33: Insanely tight race for Wisconsin governor tonight. Less than a .1% difference with 89% reporting.

Update: 12:05: GA7 goes blue with a win from Carolyn Bourdeaux.

Update: 11:58: Hawley crushes McCaskill. Stabenow survives.

Update: 11:45: Axne (D) wins IA3.

Update: 11:31: Malinowski (D) wins in NJ7, another Dem pickup.

Update: 11:25: Craig (D) wins in MN2. Another pickup.

Update: 11:20: Van Drew (D) wins NJ2. Another flip.

Update: 11:18: Huge upset in OK5 where Horn (D) defeats Rep. Russell.

Update: 11:13: Finkenauer (D) wins IA1. Another Dem pickup.

Update: 11:10: Fletcher (D) wins TX7. It’s official now, Democrats will take the House.

Update: 11:07: Spanberger takes VA7. That’s 22 pickups for the Dem. They need one more for a majority in the House.

Update: 10:58: NY19 and NY22 go Dem. That’s 21 pickups. Dems need 2 more to take the House.

Update: 10:55: Londrigan (D) wins IL13. That’s 19 pickups.

Update: 10:54: Gillum concedes!

Update: 10:46: Reschenthaler (D) wins PA14. That’s 18 pickups.

Update: 10:41: Casten (D) wins IL6. That’s 17 pickups for Dems.

Update: 10:32: Republicans will keep, and add to, their majority in the Senate.

Update: 10:20: Allred (D) wins TX32. That’s 16 pickups for Dems. They need 7 more to take the House.

Update: 10:16: Cruz defeats O’Rourke. Republicans are going to make a few gains in the Senate tonight.

Update: 10:09: NY11 goes to Rose (D) and Houlahan (D) wins in PA6. That’s 15 pickups for Dems.

Update: 10:07: Susan Wild (D) wins PA7. That’s 13 pickup for the Dems. They need 10 more to win the House.

Update: 10:05: Elaine Luria (D) wins VA2. That’s 12 pickups for Dems.

Update: 10:02: Sharice Davids (D) wins KS3. That’s 11 pickups for Dems.

Update: 10:00: Dean Phillips (D) wins in MN3. That’s 10 pickups for Dems. They need 13 more to take the House.

Update: 9:59: Sherill (D) wins in NJ11. That’s 9 flips for the Dems.

Update: 9:55: Stevens (D) wins in MI11. That’s 8 pickups for the Dems.

Update: 9:49: Curbelo (R) concedes in FL26. That’s the 7th pickup for the Dems.

Update: 9:41: Conor Lamb (D) wins in PA17. That’s the sixth Dem pickup. They need 17 more to take the House.

Update: 9:37: !!!! Fox News projects DEMOCRATS to take the House !!! I have no idea how they’re projecting that this early.

Update: 9:35: Jason Crow (D) wins in CO6. That’s the fifth Dem pickup of the night.

Update: 9:30: PA5 goes to Mary Gay Scanlon (D), the fourth Dem pickup of the night.

Update: 9:26: FL26 is extremely close as well, with the Democrat candidate up by 1.4% with 87% in.

Update: 9:20: VA7 is extremely close too, with the Democrat candidate up by 0.2% with 94% in.

Update: 9:17: VA2 is extremely close, with the Democrat candidate up by 1.4% with 89% in.

Update: 9:08: Blackburn wins!

Update: 9:06: Manchin projected to win reelection.

Update: 9:00: Dwight Evans (D) wins PA3, Dems’ third pick up of the night.

Update: 8:51: Braun defeats Donnelly. Kiss the Democrats’ hope for the Senate goodbye.

Update: 8:43: Barr (R) projected to barely win. That’s a huge keep for Republicans.

Update, 8:39: No surprise, Menendez wins reelection.

Update, 8:34: With 92% reporting in Florida, Scott leads Nelson by 0.8%, DeSantis up 1 point.

Update, 8:28: With 49% in, Donnelly is being crushed by 16%.

Update, 8:21: With 90% reporting in Florida, Scott leads Nelson by 0.1%, DeSantis up 0.5 points.

Update, 8:19: With 87% reporting in Florida, Scott leads Nelson by less than 0.1%, DeSantis up 0.1 points.

Update: 8:15: Riggleman (R) defeats Cockburn (D) in VA5, a hold for Republicans.

Update, 8:13: With 86% reporting in Florida, Scott leads Nelson by 0.6%, DeSantis up 0.2 points.

Update, 8:08: With 82% reporting in Florida, Nelson leads Scott by 0.6%, Gillum up 0.5 points.

Update, 8:02: Shalala (D) projected to win FL27. That makes two Dem flips in the House.

Update, 8:00: Shalala (D) leads Salazar (R) by 5.7% with 61% in.

Update, 7:58: With 54% in, incumbent Curbelo (R) is down by 1.6% to Murcarsel-Powell (D).

Update, 7:54: With 58% reporting in KY6, McGrath (D) leads incumbent Barr (R) by 6.8%.

Update, 7:53: In FL18, Baer (D) leads incumbent Mast (R) by 1% with 35% in. This would be a shocking flip for Dems.

Update, 7:48: With 56% reporting in Florida, Nelson leads Scott by 3.2%, Gillum up 2.8 points.

Update, 7:44: Wexton (D) projected to flip VA10 blue.

Update, 7:41: With 49% reporting in KY6, McGrath leads Barr by 4%.

Update, 7:39: With 46% reporting in Florida, Nelson leads Scott by 6.2%, Gillum up 6 points.

Update, 7:36: With 56% in, VA10 has Democrat Wexton up 16% and would be a flip for Dems.

Update, 7:31: With almost 200,000 votes in, Shalala leads Salazar by 6%.

Update, 7:25: With 30% reporting in Florida, Nelson leads Scott by 4.2%, Gillum up exactly 4 points.

Update, 7:24: With 39% reporting in KY6, McGrath leads Barr by 7.6%.

Update, 7:13: With 9% in, Barr leads McGrath by 4% in KY6.

Update, 7:12: With 8% in, Nelson takes the lead over Scott by 5.6%. Gillum up 4.4%.

Update, 7:08: With 7% in, Nelson takes the lead over Scott by 1.4%. Gillum up 0.4%.

Update, 7:04 EST: With 2% in, Scott leads Nelson in Florida by 11%

Update, 7:02 EST: No surprise, Sanders and Kaine projected to win reelection.

Update, 7:00 EST: With 6% in, McGrath leads Barr by about 600 votes.

Update, 6:53 EST: With 2% in, Andy Barr leads Amy McGrath by 12 votes.

Update, 6:45 EST: With about 1% reporting, Andy Barr (R) and Amy McGrath (D) are about tied. This is a major bell-weather race.

Update, 6:37 EST: Closing at 7 o’clock are: Florida (EST), Georgia, the rest of Indiana, the rest of Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont, and New Hampshire.

Update, 6:27: An eye-popping stat from North Dakota, where their early voting and absentee ballots increased 2496% from 2014.

Update, 6:14: With less than one percent of the vote in Indiana in, Republicans are up. That said, it’s extremely early.

Update, 6:00 EST: Most of Indiana and half of Kentucky just closed their polls.

Update, 5:52 EST: Again, do not listen to exit polls, but CNN exit polls say that 71% voters see electing minorities as important.

Update, 5:42 EST: That’s a weird thing to say: Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany tells Fox News that losing the House could be a victory for Republicans. “Should we lose the House narrowly, a few seats, it’s a victory,” she explained.

Update, 5:37 EST: Of course. According to the Washington Post, former FBI chief James Comey knocked on doors for Democrat Jennifer Wexton in North Virginia.

Update, 5:31 EST: Don’t listen to exit polls! But with that in mind… Most important issue facing the country: Health care: 41%, Immigration: 23%, Economy: 21%, Gun Policy: 11%, National CNN Exit Poll.

Good evening everyone and welcome to the IOTW 2018 Mid-Term Spectacular. I’ll be writing things in reverse chronological order, this beginning post aside.

Most of Indiana and half of Kentucky close their polls at six o’clock, then at 7, we’ll get a slew of other polls closing.

While we’re waiting, what are your predictions for tonight? Who wins the House? Who wins the Senate? What upset does no one see coming that you do? Comment and let’s have fun tonight!

173 Comments on The IOTW 2018 Mid-Term Liveblog Spectacular

  5. I saw all those commercials about how the right is trying to make voting more difficult. AND THEY’RE RIGHT!!!!

    I had to drive like 6 miles to vote in a church gymnasium. Separation of church and state much?

    Then I had to exit my vehicle and walk… WALK across the parking lot. The nerve.

    Then I showed my ID. Can you believe it? THIS IS LIKE SOVIET RUSSIA!!!!

    Then I voted in a lil’ booth that had a super low table.FUDGING MIDGET VOTERS TRYING TO BREAK MY BACK!?!?!? GO BACK TO LILLIPUT!

    And after all that all I got was a lousy sticker that said I voted.

    HOW CAN THIS REPUBLIC STAND!?!?!?!?!

    The good news is that after the 3 week dissection of the election we get 72 hours of free time before gearing up for 2020.

    30

  8. In 2016 there where 265 voters in my township and they had roughly 40% turn out. I was told there are now 325 registered voters after the League of Women voters came through and did a thorough drive.

    Went to the town hall a little after 9:00 am. I was voter #65, because there were a lot of early voters already tallied. Had to wait for two others to vote ahead of me and had two people come in to vote behind me.

    Did the grocery shopping in town and the parking lot at the fire station (their polling place) was packed with people streaming in to vote. I just wonder now what the turn out was like on the reservation?

    It’s been raining all day, damp and cold. Rained on Friday, snowed heavy on Saturday then more rain the last couple of days. Still, it looks like as good a turn out as one could expect.

    7

  11. BigOwe – I think we will, but it’s a terrifying thought that Georgia or Florida could become California-East. It’s possible when a large segment of society votes for a candidate simply because “he look like me.”

    10

  15. Just got in from voting in NJ. Turnout higher for our town, seemed like it was a Presidential election. Lots of cars pulling in as we left. Praying Hugin pulls it out!

    Also voted no for the $500 million in bonds the state wants to spend on education, all we need is more debt.

    6

  22. there seemed to be a steady stream at voting location here late morning. I read a report about voters being turned away in a town called Manderson on the Lakota rez. There must have been rumors of a lot of Sioux indians voting conservative.

    4

  25. Is there a term for auto-rape, or sodomizing oneself? Because I still have a dread feeling that’s what the majority of Florida voters have done to themselves.

    If I’m wrong the line will form on the right Friday morning to kick me in the butt, and I’ll thank you for it.

    5

  26. 6:30 eastern time. The lovely Mrs Chiggerbug and I just voted. Turnout is higher in our little precinct than it was for the 2016 presidential election…and still people coming to vote.

    4

  29. Voting turn out was decent in my district. The elementary school we voted at had a couple of nice old ladies who told me that around 570 people had voted. This was at 2pm ish.

    I couldn’t tell you how Democratic or Republican it was. I do know that there are plenty of collage students in my neighborhood, and that one if them kept slipping VOTE DEMOCRAT VOTE FOR THIS PERSON flyers in our door.

    …I made sure that I voted against each person that they asked me to vote for. 😈

    8

  35. If it turns out to be 2016 again I will be bouncing off the walls like T-i- double g- er.

    If we just hold the House I’ll be bouncing off the wall. It’s a done deal we are keeping the Senate.

    4

  37. @willysgoatgruff November 6, 2018 at 5:36 pm

    > I live for the SNARK of IOTW peoples….I think I just peed a little in anticipation…..

    So, you’re still With Her?

    (Of course I replied. This far down. Hillary’s not going away.)

  39. @Merry I bounce between here and Conservative Treehouse and sometimes “Hot Gas.” I have Mark Levin on. I might turn on Fox later depending how it’s going. But yeah, lotsa scrolling and refreshing going on here too! I’ve given up trying to draw anything the rest of the day. 😆

    5

  51. @Merry Poppet & Illustr8r – I bought a pkg of Keebler Sandie Pecan Cookies to eat my way through the elections. I may even make a third pot of coffee to go with them. I’ll be bouncing off the walls along with everyone else. Go Red Wave!

    5

  55. @Merry & Tuesday I made the mistake of drinking coffee before this started. Zing!!!! My fingers remain 🤞 but there is a bit of freak out in the comments at the blogs I follow. Dang it.

    3

  67. Well, it looks like Gary, East Chicago and maybe Hammond, IN are up to their usual tricks. House district 1 only 2% of the votes reported. Holding up the votes to see how many they have to fill in for the dem?? Perhaps? South County has turned in their counts and they have to travel a goodly distance. Last look says 2% of votes in.

    1

  69. Poached from CT comments…

    538 Nate Silver
    Live Election Update

    GOP up to 60% of keeping House
    GOP up to 95% chance of keeping senate

    I’m still eating peanut butter and crossing my fingers and toes.

    10

  70. Regardless of what happens in this election, tomorrow I’m going to wake up around 6ish, go to the bathroom, get out of bed and go to work. Just like I did this morning, yesterday, last week, last month, last year, etc…

    7

  73. Trying not to watch anything on TV, just coming here for the updates! This way I know I’m not being fed BS. But if the night pans out for us, I will be staying up to watch the CNN NPCs go nuts!

    4

  75. Mark Levin sounds verrrrry cautiously optimistic.
    Hot Air is posting tweets from pollsters/pundits who are now starting to doubt the blue wave.
    Drudge seems to be behind in updates. 🤔

    7

  90. I believe that my decision to absquatulate from the Commonwealth is being cemented as we speak…… WTF? The only thing that Spanberger has run on is that she is a fooking former CIA operative….. one of the now marginalized alphabet agencies!

    “Speaking the truth in times of universal deceit is a revolutionary act.” Geo. Orwell

    3

  92. “There ain’t a dime’s worth of difference between the national Democrats and the national Republicans.” – George Corley Wallace

    Well, if it’s only a dime, tonight I’ll take it.

    3

  116. I wonder how many people will actually think that their lives will be instantly better because of the election outcome? I also wonder how many people will actually think their lives will be worse?

    It’s a legit question.

    4

  119. Projected dimwits party take House. If true. Very disappointing!
    Who the heck wants more Adam shifty eyes Shiff, Elijah Cummins, Crazy Maxine, or Nancy P in control of committees or anything else?
    No one who is sane.

    3

  123. What’s the projections for the GA gubernatorial race? I’m seeing Kemp way ahead with 50% of the vote counted. Are there mostly R districts still out or D? Haven’t had a chance to take a closer look.

    3

  128. New rules established by the electorate tonight.
    Leftists spent millions on elected officials that signal the sprinting on to the feed trough.

    So far I’ve only shoveled in the feed from my wallet.

    Now I’m throwing the weak and sickly aside.

    If we’re now full blown socialist I’m muscling my way to the front of the trough and to hell with everyone else.
    Socialism is selfish self satisfaction at the expense of everyone else.

    The socialists tore down my signs, suppressed my first amendment. Now it’s a race to the trough before the layabouts leave me the crumbs.

    I will sleep on it, but it looks like the best solution is to get back the dough that has been stolen from me over my entire work life. Lots of dough.

    I hate this. It isn’t me.

    8

  130. “Democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where 51% of the people may take away the rights of the other 49%.”

    -Attributed to Thomas Jefferson

    Which is why “Republics” – of laws and not of men – were invented.

    Half the country doesn’t get it.

    8

  138. @PHenry- The tipping point happened 80 yrs ago when our school systems let the Leninist/Marxists into our educational systems from K all the way through college. And of course we allowed the bastards to control the airwaves and in the last couple of decades they have controlled the one thing we all thought would be free; the internet. It’s amazing that we (true conservatives) still have what we have.

    8

  141. So, for the next two years: all of the crimes of the Obama administration didn’t happen (too numerous to list). The crimes of the “too big to fail” bankers, mortgages companies, Fannie May’s, derivative fraudsters of the 2008 financial crash didn’t happen. Hillary Clinton’s crimes didn’t happen. The corrupt FBI’s and DOJ’s conspiracy against our President didn’t happen.

    Nothing happened. Move along folks. Nothing to see here. Our President is now shackled. Ride it out. There will be no justice as we used to know it. No rectification. No re-establishment of the rule of law.

    (That’s my tantrum, PHenry.)

    8

  142. President Trump simply must take control of the FBI and the Department of Justice. It’s time for our Republican Senate to step up and help him. They are, after all, actually the highest trial court in the land.

    6

  143. This scenario, as it looks right now, is exactly why Trump should have released the FISA documents, and as much evidence as possible of wrongdoing by the obama criminal gang. I’m kind of pissed off over this.

    3

  146. @joe6pak November 6, 2018 at 10:59 pm

    > exactly why Trump should have released the FISA documents, and as much evidence as possible of wrongdoing by the obama criminal gang

    And politicize an election!? That’s not who we are!
    (But you’re contributions are needed. Now, more than ever.)

    2

  148. I appreciate everyone’s viewpoint with which
    I agree.

    Just lost my job of 22 years a few weeks back and I’m teetering on 64 years old next month.
    But why bother. I’m cashing in.

    Looking at the political landscape, that Gillum was even able to establish a foothold in Florida, that Stacey Abrams even made a showing in Georgia, that
    Manchin was re-elected, that a good man like Dave Brat could be so savaged by a nobody like Spanberger, that a detestable child molester like Menendez of NJ.

    Basically, politics is bought and paid for by the creepiest amongst us and the people don’t matter.

    I am sorry. But a man has his limits.

    12

  152. @PHenry 11:07PM – I know exactly how you feel. You, I, and others on this site have worked our whole lives, paid our taxes, raised our kids, and this remnant of a once great people have stabbed us in the back.
    I have payed my dues. Now it’s the Millennial’s turn.
    I’m going to suck every government teet I can.

    7

  154. If the house goes to the Dems, and the Senate stays republican, it isn’t the end of the world. The dems won’t get anything too destructive into law (Senate won’t pass or Trump will veto). Trump still gets to name federal judges. If the dems try and impeach, I believe it will backfire in 2020. The really sad thing is how 1/2+ the country is so willing to embrace socialism.

    No one can say President Trump didn’t give 110% in stumping for republicans. Just too bad they squandered the last 2 years.

    10

  155. Sure, Trump gave 100%, and he gave it all. But why in the hell were the FISA documents and other sources of evidence not made public. We should have torpedoed these traitors!

    4

  156. In the statewide elections we did very well to excellent. We picked up a good margin in the senate and won the important govenors races while the filth did way less than average in the districts. They will have a deflated victory for real… Gear up for 2020, after these animals get even more violent I believe we will retake the house and crush them. Meanwhile pray ginsberg dies soon and we get another justice.

    4

  157. #1. Trump will be impeached, the Dems voted their people in for this very
    reason.
    #2. Trump’s agenda is dead, completely dead.
    #3. Jobs and the market will steadily decline.
    #4. Trump will be around long enough to take the full blame for #3.
    #5. The ripple effect will felt in other countries and they will cease all
    “~xits”
    #6. African American people will return back to the Dems in droves because
    they’ll see that voting Red didn’t make a difference period.
    #7. Illegals will now be fully emboldened and will be assaulting our borders
    nonstop with help from the Dems.

    Shall I go on??

    1

  158. question for tomorrow: did all the energy expended by Trump make a difference?

    … or, why do the republicans continue to present such un-electable candidates when they have an obvious slam-dunk win? … think Lou Barilla or Corey Stewart

    2

  159. Methinks there be fuckery afoot in Connecticut. Ye polls closed hours ago, yet the vote tally remains stubbornly at 52%. How long does it take to count honest votes?

    3

  160. Pump the fucking brakes. This is not an ideal situation in my mind. But there’s a lot of big thinkers that think the Libtards taking the House is optimal. They will attack Trump unsuccessfully on several fronts. “Peach 45”. Shifty, Pelosi, Maxi Pad, etc. Foaming at the mouth for two years. Getting no where. With no message. What does the 2020 election cycle look like? Petty obstructionist. How will the continued violence look? Interesting things coming.

    7

  170. “I regret that I am now to die in the belief, that the useless sacrifice of themselves by the generation of 1776, to acquire self-government and happiness to their country, is to be thrown away by the unwise and unworthy passions of their sons, and that my only consolation is to be, that I live not to weep over it.” ― Thomas Jefferson

    Darkness in his last days with our Republic going awry even then.

    Fight on.

    4

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